We now have 34 percent of the expected vote reporting in Iowa, and DeSantis leads Haley 20 percent to 19 percent for second place. Trump, of course, is way out in front with 52 percent.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Interesting, Elliott! It seems like Trump’s focus on what happened in 2020 is not turning off Iowa voters. However, pre-election polling suggests it may not have been top of mind for most Iowa voters who were considering Trump in the caucuses. Only 40 percent of likely GOP caucusgoers who said they were considering caucusing for Trump said that payback for 2020 was among the reasons, which was the smallest share among the possible reasons listed in a December YouGov/CBS News survey. The reason chosen by the most voters, of the options presented, was that they think things were better under Trump, which 99 percent said was one of their reasons.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

I agree that Trump's big win is the headline. I thought it would be closer and that a call would take longer. But if Haley can come in second, and then does well in New Hampshire, that could elevate her in a way that matters electorally, and narratively.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

I think a second place for Haley would effectively kill the DeSantis campaign. That's news! DeSantis pinned a lot of his hopes on doing well in the state. But more importantly, I agree with Nathaniel: Trump's big win is the headline. CNN reported last week that the White House is frustrated that many voters do not seem to acknowledge that the general election is so likely to be Trump vs. Biden. Given that, covering Iowa for what it is (effectively the last indicator we needed that Trump is overwhelmingly likely to be the nominee) could correct some of those misperceptions.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538