Maryland, West Virginia and Nebraska primaries 2024: Alsobrooks beats Trone, GOP incumbents survive

538 tracked over 10 competitive primaries for Senate, House and governor.

Tuesday, May 14 was another busy primary day, as voters in three states decided who would be on their general election ballots this fall. In Maryland, Democrats nominated women in two safely Democratic congressional seats, including Angela Alsobrooks, who is poised to become only the third Black woman ever elected to the Senate. In West Virginia and Nebraska, incumbent Republican representatives fended off far-right challengers.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Maryland voters are more focused on crime than voters in other states

If you've followed our live blogs for previous elections, you're probably familiar with the issues that have generally been motivating voters across the country: for Republican primary voters, economic issues and immigration; for Democratic primary voters, abortion access and threats to democracy.

Well, Maryland is here to upset the trend! In a May poll from Emerson College/The Hill/WDVM-TV, registered Republicans were still most likely to select the "economy (jobs, inflation, taxes)" as the most important issue facing the state, with 38 percent choosing that issue. But the second-most chosen issue among Republicans was crime, at 18 percent, followed by immigration at 11 percent; no other issue was chosen by more than 10 percent of registered Republicans.

Among registered Democrats, we also see some differences from other states. They were most likely to select the economy, at 24 percent, then crime, at 17 percent. These were followed by "threats to democracy" at 16 percent, "housing affordability" at 15 percent and health care at 11 percent. Perhaps surprisingly, abortion access was selected by only 5 percent of registered Democrats in Maryland.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538


Polls are now closed in West Virginia

It's 7:30 p.m. Eastern, which means our first polls of the night — in West Virginia — are now closed. Expect results shortly!

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Republican women's groups are endorsing in fewer races this cycle

Since about the mid-1990s, Democrats have been electing more women to Congress than Republicans, and the gap gets bigger each cycle. A number of factors explain this disparity between the parties, but one is that the GOP continues to invest less in recruiting and financially supporting its female primary candidates.

There was some speculation that this might be changing. After the 2018 midterm elections, a handful of GOP groups aiming to elect more women cropped up after just four of the 42 new women who joined Congress were Republicans. That imbalance was a wake-up call for New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, who had reportedly recruited more than 100 women to run for Congress that year, but just one of them prevailed in November; most failed to emerge from their primaries. After the 2018 cycle, Stefanik started Elevate PAC as the Republican counterpart to EMILY's List. Stefanik announced she wanted to "play big in primaries," even though Republican leadership said it was "a mistake." Perhaps as a result, in the 2020 cycle, more Republican women ran in and won primaries than ever before.

But this cycle, Elevate PAC hasn't posted any endorsements to its website; Open Secrets shows that it has made contributions to primary candidates — but that list includes men, too, evidence that Stefanik may have other priorities this time around.

But Elevate PAC isn't the only GOP women's group that seems to be pulling back. We've also been tracking endorsements from Winning for Women, Maggie's List and VIEW PAC. Through today's primaries, Winning for Women and Maggie's List have endorsed just two non-incumbents (Wendy Davis, who lost her primary last week in Indiana, and Laurie Buckhout, who won her March primary in North Carolina). VIEW PAC is outpacing these other groups in endorsements, but it has still endorsed only five non-incumbents (two of whom have won their primaries thus far).

Today, there is one Republican woman running in an incumbent-less primary with support from VIEW PAC: Mariela Roca, an Air Force veteran, is running in Maryland's 6th District. However, she faces an uphill battle against two former state delegates, Dan Cox and Neil Parrott.

The primaries aren't over, so we don't yet know if the GOP is slipping when it comes to nominating women. But preliminary evidence from the Center for American Women in Politics suggests a decline. The number of female Republican House candidates is down by 38 percent from 2022 to 2024 in states where filing deadlines have passed.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

CORRECTION (May 15, 2024, 3:15 p.m.): A previous version of this post stated that Winning for Women and Maggie's List have only endorsed one non-incumbent through today's primaries. The post has been updated to include Laurie Buckhout of North Carolina's 1st Congressional District, whom both organizations have also endorsed.


Democratic women we're watching

According to the Center for American Women in Politics, in states where filing deadlines have passed as of April 26, 36 percent of Democratic candidates for House races and 32 percent for Senate races are women. Today in Maryland, the share is a little lower: 32 percent of Democrats running for House and two out of 10 Senate candidates are women.

That said, women are competitive in a couple of Maryland's most critical primaries — which happen to be pretty crowded. A slew of Democratic departures — in the 2nd, 3rd and 6th Congressional Districts, as well as the Senate — have contributed to a wave of hopeful nominees, including Elfreth in the 3rd District and Alsobrooks for Senate. EMILY's List, the Democratic powerhouse that supports women at the crucial primary stage, has put its muscle behind Alsobrooks with a $2 million ad buy. But, despite typically investing in pro-choice women running in competitive districts, the group hasn't made an endorsement in Elfreth's race.

Meanwhile, in West Virginia, there are no Democratic women on the ballot today, while in Nebraska, there is just one running: state Sen. Carol Blood is running unopposed in the 1st District. If the incumbent Republican, Rep. Mike Flood, wins his primary, it will be Blood versus Flood, a most ominous general election match-up. But she will likely lose this, ahem, blood-red district in November.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor


Candidates of color to watch

Tonight, we'll be monitoring how candidates of color perform in primaries for governor, U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives. Overall, 47 people of color are running in these contests — 36 Democrats and 11 Republicans. Almost all of the candidates (44) are running in Maryland, which is one of the most racially and ethnically diverse states in the country.

The marquee Maryland race involving a candidate of color is, of course, the Democratic primary for Senate. If Alsobrooks makes it through both the primary and general election, she will be only the third Black woman ever elected to the Senate — although she may be tied for that distinction with Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester, who is a strong favorite to win in Delaware.

Down the Maryland ballot, a number of candidates are running in the solidly blue 3rd District. In the Democratic primary, former Capitol Hill police officer Harry Dunn, who is Black, has been a fundraising machine but finds himself in a tight contest in against state Sen. Sarah Elfreth, who is white. State Sen. Clarence Lam, who is of East Asian descent, may have an outside shot of catching Dunn and/or Elfreth, while three other legislators of color — Dels. Mark Chang, Terri Hill and Mike Rogers — look unlikely to break through. On the GOP side, retired Air Force officer Berney Flowers, who is Black, has raised a bit more than his primary opponents, although the Republican nominee will have virtually no chance here.

In the blue-leaning 6th District, state Del. Joe Vogel, a Latino, is locked in a close race with former Commerce Department official April McCalin Delaney. A third contender, Hagerstown Mayor Tekesha Martinez, who is Black, has raised a sizable amount of campaign cash, too. In the mix in the Republican primary are Air Force veteran Mariela Roca, who is Latina, and former Del. Brenda Thiam, who was the first Black female Republican to ever sit in the Maryland legislature. However, this crowded race could go in a lot of directions.

Elsewhere, in the solidly blue 2nd District, Del. Harry Bhandari, a Nepali immigrant, looks like a significant underdog in the Democratic primary against Baltimore County Executive Johnny Olszewski. The GOP favorite in that seat may be Kim Klacik, a Black woman whose failed 2020 campaign in the solidly Democratic 7th District raised millions after Trump retweeted her campaign ad. She has raised far less this time around, and whomever Republicans nominate will be a huge underdog in November.

In the dark-blue 5th District, health care executive Quincy Bareebe, a Ugandan immigrant, has loaned her campaign more than $200,000 in her long-shot primary challenge to longtime Rep. Steny Hoyer. On the Republican side, Charles County GOP chair Michelle Talkington, who is half Black and half white, has no opposition in her primary. Reps. Glenn Ivey and Kweisi Mfume, both Black incumbents, should easily win renomination in their safe blue seats.

Outside Maryland, state Sen. Tony Vargas, who is Latino, is unopposed for the Democratic nomination in Nebraska's highly competitive 2nd District. And in Nebraska's special election for Senate, community advocate Preston Love Jr., who is Black, is also unopposed but will stand little chance in the general election. In West Virginia's dark-red 2nd District, Walker, who is Black, has raised a lot of money in the Republican primary but, as Nathaniel wrote earlier, looks like an underdog against Moore.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538