Maryland, West Virginia and Nebraska primaries 2024: Alsobrooks beats Trone, GOP incumbents survive

538 tracked over 10 competitive primaries for Senate, House and governor.

Tuesday, May 14 was another busy primary day, as voters in three states decided who would be on their general election ballots this fall. In Maryland, Democrats nominated women in two safely Democratic congressional seats, including Angela Alsobrooks, who is poised to become only the third Black woman ever elected to the Senate. In West Virginia and Nebraska, incumbent Republican representatives fended off far-right challengers.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Justice projected to win GOP West Virginia Senate primary

ABC News reports Jim Justice is projected to win the West Virginia Republican Senate primary. In a deep-red state, he is also overwhelmingly likely to defeat his Democratic opponent. That race is yet to be projected.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538


Initial results in the West Virginia governor’s race

With 14 percent of the expected vote reporting in the Republican primary for West Virginia governor, Morrisey leads Capito 35 percent to 30 percent. Meanwhile, Warner (18 percent) and Miller (14 percent) are further back.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Sen. Sanders endorsement in Maryland's 3rd District

For a few cycles now, 538 has been eyeing the relationship between the Democratic Party and its progressive wing by tracking primary endorsements from progressive groups. One progressive we've been watching for several cycles is Sen. Bernie Sanders. In 2018, capitalizing on the momentum gained from his 2016 Democratic primary, he became a real player when it came to elevating progressive candidates. That cycle, he endorsed in nine open primaries, but only five of whom won. In 2020, he endorsed in eight open primaries, six of whom won, and in 2022 he endorsed in ten primaries, eight of whom won.

In short, his endorsees are doing a little better, each cycle. Today's primaries marks his first open primary endorsement of the cycle — John Morse, a labor attorney, running in the very crowded Maryland's 3rd.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor


Early results suggest easy Justice victory in West Virginia Senate GOP primary

With 14 percent of the expected vote reporting, West Virginia Governor Jim Justice looks headed for an easy defeat of U.S. House Rep. Alex Mooney in the race to be the GOP nominee for Senator from West Virginia. Mooney currently leads Justice only in Jefferson and Berkeley Counties in the Northeastern panhandle of the state — an area with a lot of exurban communities of the Washington, DC, metro area. Our polling average for the race had Justice ahead of Mooney by 34 percentage points. He is currently up by 29 points, 59 percent to 30 percent, though of course it is still early in the night.

On the Democratic side, coal executive Don Blankenship currently trails his competition with 16 percent of the vote, and 10 percent of the expected vote reporting. Glenn Elliott, the mayor of Wheeling, West Virginia, holds a sizable lead over Zachary Shrewsbury, a Marine Corps veteran, though again it's too early to call a winner in that race too.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538


Final thought: TV advertising and diminishing marginal returns

Money can buy you a lot of things, but it's not all-powerful. Trone found that out the hard way tonight when he hit a ceiling of about 42 percent of the vote (with 61 percent of the expected vote reporting), despite spending untold millions. If Trone had spent $30 million less, I'm not sure he would have done all that much worse. If he had spent $60 million less, he probably wouldn't have registered at all.

It was obvious that money was a big part of victories elsewhere in the state and country. In Maryland's 3rd District, Elfreth was able to ride a wave of outside support to a comfortable but tough projected win over Dunn — without that money, I'm not sure she would have succeeded. And the third-place finisher, Lam, was not coincidentally the only other candidate to go on TV. In Maryland's 6th District, the only two Democrats with money to go on TV were also the ones to place in double digits, Delaney and Vogel, and the bigger spender won more votes. And in West Virginia's 2nd District and Nebraska's 2nd District, big spending by incumbent GOP representatives and their outside allies ultimately staved off underfunded challenges from right-wing opponents.

Anyway, my biggest takeaway is that Maryland has something to offer for everyone! And our flag is the best in the nation. With that: Good night.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections