Missouri, Michigan, Washington and Kansas primaries 2024: Cori Bush loses
The fields are set for Michigan's Senate and Missouri's governor contests.
Three months out from the big November election, around a third of all states had yet to hold (non-presidential) primaries. On Tuesday, Democrats and Republicans in Missouri, Michigan, Washington and Kansas went to the polls to pick which candidates will appear on their ballots in the fall.
The electoral fate of a couple endangered House incumbents hung in the balance on this packed primary day. In Missouri, a progressive "Squad" member was defeated by centrist forces, and in Washington, one of only two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach President Donald Trump was challenged by not one but two Trump-endorsed opponents from his right.
Meanwhile, both parties locked in their nominees for Michigan’s critical Senate race, and the outcomes of Republican primary contests are likely to determine Missouri’s next governor and attorney general. In battleground House districts, the fields were set for competitive fall contests, while in safe red and blue districts, ideological lines were drawn as candidates duke it out in primaries tantamount to election.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Check out our full live blog below!
Latest headlines:
- McDonald Rivet projected winner in Michigan's 8th District Democratic primary
- Marlinga secures a rematch in Michigan's 10th
- Hudson projected to win GOP primary in Michigan's 3rd District
- Will Washington's 6th District get a bipartisan matchup or two Democrats in November?
- Baumgartner advances in Washington's 5th District
Answer: Democrats have to vote for somebody
I agree with Jacob — In a Newhouse vs. pro-Trump Republican matchup, I think I'd rather be Newhouse. In 2020 and 2022, his Democratic opponent won over 30 percent of the vote in this solidly red seat. If no Democrat appears on the ballot, I'd expect the Democrats in the district to prefer a candidate that stood up to Trump and voted for his impeachment over one that got his endorsement. So even if a majority of Republican voters abandon Newhouse, he could hope that Democratic voters might be enough to put him over the edge.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
Answer: I think Newhouse would be favored, at least slightly?
Nathaniel, I’d rather be Newhouse in that situation. The district is not so Republican — Biden won 40 percent of the vote there in 2020, and Newhouse regularly overperforms other Republicans in the district, so he’s clearly winning over some crossover support. If he can compile a Murkowski-esque coalition of Democrats, independents, and moderate Republicans, he can make it work. He’d probably need Democrats to show up for him, but as long as he can hold down a decent slug of Republicans it could work.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
Question: Who would win a Sessler-versus-Newhouse general election?
As Geoffrey reported earlier, it looks like Washington’s 4th District could easily go to a general election between a pro-Trump and an anti-Trump Republican. Who do you guys think would be favored in such a matchup?
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Baumgartner advances in Washington's 5th District
In Washington's 5th District, the AP projects Republican Michael Baumgartner will advance from the primary to the general election. With 56 percent of the expected vote counted, Democrat Carmela Conroy (no relation) is in second with 20 percent of the vote, while Republican Jaquelin Maycumber has 12 percent. We're still waiting on the second candidate to advance in this top-two primary.
This was an open primary, after the incumbent, a Republican woman, Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, announced she would not seeking reelection. A couple key GOP women's groups had thrown their endorsement to state Rep. Jaquelin Maycumber in the hopes of keeping the seat in the hands of a Republican woman.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor