New Hampshire primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to fight on
Trump and Biden had strong showings in the first-in-the-nation primary.
Former President Donald Trump will win the 2024 New Hampshire GOP primary, ABC News projects. As of 10 p.m. Eastern, Trump was ahead by less than 10 percentage points. While that represents a slight overperformance of polling for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, even a close loss is a big hit to her prospects, as she had staked her campaign on a strong performance in the Granite State. Haley spoke shortly after the projection to emphasize that "this race is far from over," while Trump (and his allies) amped up calls for her to drop out.
ABC News has also projected that President Joe Biden will win the Granite State's Democratic primary. A comfortable write-in victory for him despite not even being on the ballot is a good sign for the incumbent.
Latest headlines:
Trump doing about 20 points better than 2016
As we often say here at 538, results that come in early on election night can be misleading. That's because if you look at just the statewide results you don't know what's left to come in from where. Currently there's only 18% of expected votes reporting — so we're nowhere near what media networks and race-callers need to project the outcome.
That being said... One thing we can do is compare how Trump is doing relative to his 2016 vote share in towns that are fully or nearly fully reporting results. I took at look at five — Concord, Weare, Seabrook, Alton, and Conway — and Trump's doing an average of 20 points better than in 2016. As a crude guess, that would put him somewhere around 55 percent of the vote. If Haley gets the remaining votes, that would shake out as a high single-digits or low double-digits win for Trump. In other words, a little better than expected for Haley.
—G. Elliott Morris, 538
ABC News projects that Biden will win the Granite State
Well, it remains to be seen by how much, but ABC News projects that Biden will win the New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary. We have limited returns, but "unprocessed write-ins" are clearing 70 percent at the moment, much of which will be ballots cast for Biden.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
How does Hanover go?
In 2016, one of Trump's worst performances came in Hanover, which is home to Dartmouth College, and sits due north of Lebanon. Trump came in fourth place there, with just 10.7 percent, behind Kasich, Rubio and Bush. It's not a ton of votes there — just over 1,600 votes cast in the 2016 primary — but it's a place Haley needs to dominate in tonight.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
How to win and lose the New Hampshire primary at the same time
Earlier, Nathaniel wrote about what would constitute a win for Trump and for Haley. But it’s worth remembering that in the 1968 Democratic primary, Eugene McCarthy surprised observers by taking 42 percent of the vote against incumbent President Lyndon Baines Johnson, who won 48 percent. Despite winning New Hampshire, by the end of the month, LBJ had dropped out of the race, famously declaring, "I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your president."
—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor