As we often say here at 538, results that come in early on election night can be misleading. That's because if you look at just the statewide results you don't know what's left to come in from where. Currently there's only 18% of expected votes reporting — so we're nowhere near what media networks and race-callers need to project the outcome.

That being said... One thing we can do is compare how Trump is doing relative to his 2016 vote share in towns that are fully or nearly fully reporting results. I took at look at five — Concord, Weare, Seabrook, Alton, and Conway — and Trump's doing an average of 20 points better than in 2016. As a crude guess, that would put him somewhere around 55 percent of the vote. If Haley gets the remaining votes, that would shake out as a high single-digits or low double-digits win for Trump. In other words, a little better than expected for Haley.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538

Well, it remains to be seen by how much, but ABC News projects that Biden will win the New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary. We have limited returns, but "unprocessed write-ins" are clearing 70 percent at the moment, much of which will be ballots cast for Biden.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

In 2016, one of Trump's worst performances came in Hanover, which is home to Dartmouth College, and sits due north of Lebanon. Trump came in fourth place there, with just 10.7 percent, behind Kasich, Rubio and Bush. It's not a ton of votes there — just over 1,600 votes cast in the 2016 primary — but it's a place Haley needs to dominate in tonight.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Earlier, Nathaniel wrote about what would constitute a win for Trump and for Haley. But it’s worth remembering that in the 1968 Democratic primary, Eugene McCarthy surprised observers by taking 42 percent of the vote against incumbent President Lyndon Baines Johnson, who won 48 percent. Despite winning New Hampshire, by the end of the month, LBJ had dropped out of the race, famously declaring, "I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your president."

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor

Big picture, this was a good night for Trump, who gets another win under his belt, avoids the embarrassment of losing an early state, and gets to compete in much more favorable territory from now on. It's obvious he's going to be the Republican nominee for president. But I don't think we should lose sight of the fact that just under half of Republican primary voters in the first two states voted for someone other than Trump, even as his inevitability has become apparent. I do think that should be a cause for some concern among Republicans moving forward, given that the general election will likely be brutally close and even a small drop in Republican support for Trump could prove fatal. The longer Haley stays in, the more data we'll get on just how many GOP voters there are who are not entirely on board with Trump, especially as she steps up her direct attacks on him. There's been so much conversation about Biden's struggles within the Democratic coalition — which are real and worthy of attention — but Trump may face similar challenges as the nominee as well.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections