Haley said tonight that she's staying in the race, with an eye on the Feb. 24 GOP primary in her home state of South Carolina. Besides the caucuses in the U.S. Virgin Islands on Feb. 8, there won't be another Trump-Haley matchup until South Carolina because Haley didn't file for Nevada's Feb. 8 caucuses, which Trump was expected to easily win even before everyone else dropped out besides Haley. I'd make it a 50-50 proposition whether she stays in until South Carolina, however.

With the Palmetto State up next, I can see why Haley would like to stick around: Maybe she can win over voters in her home state, or something else could happen in the race to cause Trump's position to deteriorate. For instance, he's made some garbled, confused statements in recent days, including appearing to confuse Haley for Nancy Pelosi when talking about the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. Yet Haley also has to keep raising money to keep her campaign alive. That could be a challenge as GOP donors increasingly look ahead to the general election and her chances of defeating Trump look to be between slim and none. Moreover, if her position in South Carolina doesn't improve in the next couple weeks, she may not want to risk taking a big loss on her home turf.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

I think Haley will stay in through South Carolina for the reason Monica stated — to consolidate the non-Trump primary vote, however small. Haley seems to be bolder in her attacks on Trump as time goes on (like drawing attention to his mental fitness as she did tonight). That also tells me she isn't ready to drop out.

— Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

I'm not sure. In earlier live blogs and chats, we've wondered if one candidate could consolidate the non-Trump vote. It looks like Haley has done that in New Hampshire. Thirty-five percent of New Hampshire voters identified with the MAGA movement, according to exit polls, and Haley won 66 percent of those who were not part of the movement. If she wants to prove that there is a contingent of Republicans in the country that do not want a second Trump term, she could stay in and hope that something happens or she gains actual ... wait for it ... momentum. She said in her speech that it's not over, and that's technically true.

—Monica Potts, 538

Hmm, I dunno, Jacob. I kinda think Haley might pull a DeSantis: She thinks she can muddle through now, but in a couple weeks, if she hasn’t made any dent in Trump’s lead in South Carolina, she may decide it’s fruitless and pull the plug. She may want to avoid the embarrassment of losing in her home state. In any event, I am quite sure that Haley will drop out if she loses South Carolina outright — meaning I bet Super Tuesday won’t even be relevant this year.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Coming into today, a big question was whether independents would turn out a high level and put Haley in a competitive position versus Trump. Based on the preliminary exit poll, the answer was yes — but not enough for Haley to win. Overall, 45 percent of voters identified as independent or something else, and they went for Haley by 24 points, 61 percent to 37 percent. However, self-identified Republicans made up 4 percent of the electorate and. broke for Trump by 39 points, 74 percent to 25 percent. Even with a little help from the 6 percent who identified as Democrats (went for Haley 84 percent to 6 percent), Haley couldn't catch Trump because of his overwhelming edge among Republicans.

Another aspect of the independent question is New Hampshire's electoral access rules, which permit those not registered with a party — "undeclared" voters — to vote in party primaries. That group, which includes many self-identified independents, did turn out in a big way, making up 47 percent of the electorate to registered Republicans' 50 percent (same-day registrants made up the rest). And Haley won among undeclared voters 66 percent to 32 percent. But Trump won among registered Republicans 74 percent to 24 percent. These numbers will change somewhat after further weighting based on the results, but the big takeaway is that independents put Haley in range, but Trump's dominance among Republicans preserved his edge.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538