ABC News projects that Trump will win the New Hampshire Republican primary. He currently leads Haley 53 percent to 46 percent with 15 percent of the expected vote reporting. And based on where ballots remain to be counted, I'd expect that margin to widen.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

According to preliminary exit polls, Trump is doing about 10 points better with men than women in New Hampshire. In earlier primary polls, he was running more evenly, or better, with women. With Ramaswamy and DeSantis out of the race (and their endorsement of Trump), Trump likely picked up more support from male voters.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

The first major news organization — the Associated Press — has called the New Hampshire Republican primary for Trump. Our colleagues at the ABC News decision desk, however, have not yet made a projection.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

There are a lot of arguments about whether the current nomination system that we have — influential early contests and the "invisible primary", where fundraising, polls and endorsements show which candidates have support — is effective. There's an argument that this system is effective at "winnowing" candidates who aren't able to unite the party behind them. But in the case of DeSantis dropping out on Sunday — unusual timing — it's not clear that this was especially effective winnowing. From a candidate perspective, maybe. DeSantis lost support as Trump gained it, and he didn't seem to especially strike people as an ascendant presidential figure.

DeSantis's departure from the race was good for consolidating the party around Trump at this stage, which is usually what parties want. But Trump is a complicated figure, and even as the GOP is increasingly his party, it's not totally straightforward. If your takeaway from the Iowa caucuses was that about 40 percent of caucusgoers preferred someone else, then it makes sense that a real contest between Trump and a competitor might have been good to have. Now the Haley campaign is trying to talk about a head-to-head contest. It's hard to know what a two-person race between Haley and Trump would have been like, and pretty difficult to imagine that Haley would be beating Trump now. But competition between Trump and an alternative might have been clearer if it had been a two-person race for longer.

—Julia Azari, 538 contributor

Coming into today, a big question was whether independents would turn out a high level and put Haley in a competitive position versus Trump. Based on the preliminary exit poll, the answer was yes — but not enough for Haley to win. Overall, 45 percent of voters identified as independent or something else, and they went for Haley by 24 points, 61 percent to 37 percent. However, self-identified Republicans made up 4 percent of the electorate and. broke for Trump by 39 points, 74 percent to 25 percent. Even with a little help from the 6 percent who identified as Democrats (went for Haley 84 percent to 6 percent), Haley couldn't catch Trump because of his overwhelming edge among Republicans.

Another aspect of the independent question is New Hampshire's electoral access rules, which permit those not registered with a party — "undeclared" voters — to vote in party primaries. That group, which includes many self-identified independents, did turn out in a big way, making up 47 percent of the electorate to registered Republicans' 50 percent (same-day registrants made up the rest). And Haley won among undeclared voters 66 percent to 32 percent. But Trump won among registered Republicans 74 percent to 24 percent. These numbers will change somewhat after further weighting based on the results, but the big takeaway is that independents put Haley in range, but Trump's dominance among Republicans preserved his edge.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538