As we often say here at 538, results that come in early on election night can be misleading. That's because if you look at just the statewide results you don't know what's left to come in from where. Currently there's only 18% of expected votes reporting — so we're nowhere near what media networks and race-callers need to project the outcome.

That being said... One thing we can do is compare how Trump is doing relative to his 2016 vote share in towns that are fully or nearly fully reporting results. I took at look at five — Concord, Weare, Seabrook, Alton, and Conway — and Trump's doing an average of 20 points better than in 2016. As a crude guess, that would put him somewhere around 55 percent of the vote. If Haley gets the remaining votes, that would shake out as a high single-digits or low double-digits win for Trump. In other words, a little better than expected for Haley.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538

Well, it remains to be seen by how much, but ABC News projects that Biden will win the New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary. We have limited returns, but "unprocessed write-ins" are clearing 70 percent at the moment, much of which will be ballots cast for Biden.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

In 2016, one of Trump's worst performances came in Hanover, which is home to Dartmouth College, and sits due north of Lebanon. Trump came in fourth place there, with just 10.7 percent, behind Kasich, Rubio and Bush. It's not a ton of votes there — just over 1,600 votes cast in the 2016 primary — but it's a place Haley needs to dominate in tonight.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Earlier, Nathaniel wrote about what would constitute a win for Trump and for Haley. But it’s worth remembering that in the 1968 Democratic primary, Eugene McCarthy surprised observers by taking 42 percent of the vote against incumbent President Lyndon Baines Johnson, who won 48 percent. Despite winning New Hampshire, by the end of the month, LBJ had dropped out of the race, famously declaring, "I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your president."

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor

Coming into today, a big question was whether independents would turn out a high level and put Haley in a competitive position versus Trump. Based on the preliminary exit poll, the answer was yes — but not enough for Haley to win. Overall, 45 percent of voters identified as independent or something else, and they went for Haley by 24 points, 61 percent to 37 percent. However, self-identified Republicans made up 4 percent of the electorate and. broke for Trump by 39 points, 74 percent to 25 percent. Even with a little help from the 6 percent who identified as Democrats (went for Haley 84 percent to 6 percent), Haley couldn't catch Trump because of his overwhelming edge among Republicans.

Another aspect of the independent question is New Hampshire's electoral access rules, which permit those not registered with a party — "undeclared" voters — to vote in party primaries. That group, which includes many self-identified independents, did turn out in a big way, making up 47 percent of the electorate to registered Republicans' 50 percent (same-day registrants made up the rest). And Haley won among undeclared voters 66 percent to 32 percent. But Trump won among registered Republicans 74 percent to 24 percent. These numbers will change somewhat after further weighting based on the results, but the big takeaway is that independents put Haley in range, but Trump's dominance among Republicans preserved his edge.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538