New Hampshire primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to fight on
Trump and Biden had strong showings in the first-in-the-nation primary.
Former President Donald Trump will win the 2024 New Hampshire GOP primary, ABC News projects. As of 10 p.m. Eastern, Trump was ahead by less than 10 percentage points. While that represents a slight overperformance of polling for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, even a close loss is a big hit to her prospects, as she had staked her campaign on a strong performance in the Granite State. Haley spoke shortly after the projection to emphasize that "this race is far from over," while Trump (and his allies) amped up calls for her to drop out.
ABC News has also projected that President Joe Biden will win the Granite State's Democratic primary. A comfortable write-in victory for him despite not even being on the ballot is a good sign for the incumbent.
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Answer: Why drop out now?
Elliott, I think that the window for her to drop out after losing tonight probably closes pretty soon. It's a long month between now and South Carolina, but Haley seems set on making it to her home state. If a loss tonight wasn't enough to push her out, I'm not sure what will change over the next few weeks to alter that calculus. She's got a big ad buy coming down the pike in South Carolina (which, of course, could be canceled) and talks up the state all the time.
To me, the more fun question is whether or not Haley seriously contests the actual next contest after New Hampshire, the US Virgin Islands caucus on February 8. The USVI had been on my radar because the GOP there will conduct its caucus using ranked-choice voting, which I believe is unique among Republican contests, but in a two-person race, ranked-choice is a little less interesting.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
Answer: Will Haley stay in for South Carolina?
Haley has a good deal of cash on hand, and I can imagine a world in which she raises some more if she loses by less than double-digits tonight — which is a big if. Even if the anti-Trump Republican contingent is pretty small, this is their best chance at consolidating.
—Julia Azari, 538 contributor
Question time: How far does Haley take this?
Whether Haley loses by 10 or 13 points tonight, I think we can all agree Trump is still on track to win — almost certainly, if we're being probabilistic. But as we just saw, that does not mean Haley will quit! So, what does the team think about how long she will hold on? Does she run all the way through South Carolina, where Trump is currently approaching a 40-point lead?
—G. Elliott Morris, 538
New Hampshire independents boosted Haley, but they weren't enough for her
Coming into today, a big question was whether independents would turn out a high level and put Haley in a competitive position versus Trump. Based on the preliminary exit poll, the answer was yes — but not enough for Haley to win. Overall, 45 percent of voters identified as independent or something else, and they went for Haley by 24 points, 61 percent to 37 percent. However, self-identified Republicans made up 4 percent of the electorate and. broke for Trump by 39 points, 74 percent to 25 percent. Even with a little help from the 6 percent who identified as Democrats (went for Haley 84 percent to 6 percent), Haley couldn't catch Trump because of his overwhelming edge among Republicans.
Another aspect of the independent question is New Hampshire's electoral access rules, which permit those not registered with a party — "undeclared" voters — to vote in party primaries. That group, which includes many self-identified independents, did turn out in a big way, making up 47 percent of the electorate to registered Republicans' 50 percent (same-day registrants made up the rest). And Haley won among undeclared voters 66 percent to 32 percent. But Trump won among registered Republicans 74 percent to 24 percent. These numbers will change somewhat after further weighting based on the results, but the big takeaway is that independents put Haley in range, but Trump's dominance among Republicans preserved his edge.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
Trump’s evangelical base is missing in New Hampshire
New Hampshire is one of the least religious states in the country. That might help explain why Trump’s closest competitor, Haley, has closed in on his lead a bit there: He’s at 54 percent to her 36 percent. While in 2016, evangelical Christians and regular churchgoers were reluctant to throw their support behind Trump, this key Republican voting bloc is now his solid base. And they’re missing in this first-in-the-nation primary.
In Iowa last week, Trump improved on his 2016 caucuses performance by 35 points in the most evangelical areas of the state, according to a Washington Post analysis. That’s just the latest evidence that evangelical voters are his to lose. In the 2020 general election, he won 59 percent of voters who attend church at least monthly, according to a Pew Research Center analysis. More than that, Trump moved many of his voters to identify as evangelical Christian, regardless of their church attendance habits.
Evangelicals remain one of the most motivated, active parts of the Republican Party nationwide, and, without that, Trump’s campaign might be missing a little steam. In addition to being less religious, New Hampshire residents have other identity markers that pull them further from Trump’s base. It’s one of the most educated states in the country, and has had an active Libertarian Party. In this respect, New Hampshire Republicans are a bit different from their fellow party members in other states. All of these factors might be giving Haley a small opening, but Trump is still favored to win.
Looking beyond that toward November, New Hampshire has voted for the Democratic candidate in every election save one since 1992. So while the eventual Republican nominee will have a shot, the less religious nature of New Hampshire might be a sign that the state is simply becoming more solidly Democratic like its New England neighbors, at least when it comes to presidential elections.
—Monica Potts, 538