Big picture, this was a good night for Trump, who gets another win under his belt, avoids the embarrassment of losing an early state, and gets to compete in much more favorable territory from now on. It's obvious he's going to be the Republican nominee for president. But I don't think we should lose sight of the fact that just under half of Republican primary voters in the first two states voted for someone other than Trump, even as his inevitability has become apparent. I do think that should be a cause for some concern among Republicans moving forward, given that the general election will likely be brutally close and even a small drop in Republican support for Trump could prove fatal. The longer Haley stays in, the more data we'll get on just how many GOP voters there are who are not entirely on board with Trump, especially as she steps up her direct attacks on him. There's been so much conversation about Biden's struggles within the Democratic coalition — which are real and worthy of attention — but Trump may face similar challenges as the nominee as well.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

I know we're not finished with New Hampshire yet — and, per Haley's speech tonight, the primary is yet to go on! — but I believe it's never too early for some general election game theory ... So here it is:

A key question for November will be how many of the moderate Republicans who voted for Haley tonight end up voting for Trump. On the one hand, ultimately, Haley voters are still Republicans. The vast majority of them oppose Biden and the Democratic party, so they will probably vote for Trump in the end. But on the other hand, and this is the million dollar question, exactly how Republican are they really? If, say, 5 percent of Haley's supporters defect and vote for Biden or a third party, that could matter in a close election.

Ultimately Trump's poor performance with moderate and college-educated Republicans in the primary so far does not spell doom for him. But it may still highlight one of his key weaknesses for the general.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538

This GOP primary has so far been a combination of utterly predictable and utterly unprecedented. A twice-impeached former president seeks to return to office, and has won a majority of voters in the Iowa caucuses and now the New Hampshire primary. Is Trump a quasi-incumbent facing a surprisingly spirited primary challenge from someone who was polling in the single digits over the summer? Haley's margin tonight looks to be close to the vote share Gene McCarthy had in 1968, which drove LBJ from the race. Or is Haley prolonging the inevitable, coming up short even in a state where a large number of college-educated voters and a smaller evangelical Protestant constituency make it especially receptive to anti-Trump candidates? If the usual rules apply, Trump is very well positioned to win the primary. We'll see if Haley can make her home state more competitive than it looks to be now.

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor

At a certain point, this contest will be about delegate counts and not perceptions. But we haven’t reached that point yet.

Trump’s speech was highly focused on Nikki Haley, suggesting that, despite his victory tonight, she might be making the former president feel a bit threatened. He also continued to spread a clear falsehood about how the New Hampshire primary works — it’s not an open primary, and you have to change your party registration by October 6 in order to cast a primary vote.

However, narratives about outperforming expectations can only fuel a candidate for so long. It’s far from clear what the next few weeks hold for Haley — can she hang on? Will she be able to pick up delegates in later contests? Or was New Hampshire her best shot at a primary victory?

—Julia Azari, 538 contributor

New Hampshire is one of the least religious states in the country. That might help explain why Trump’s closest competitor, Haley, has closed in on his lead a bit there: He’s at 54 percent to her 36 percent. While in 2016, evangelical Christians and regular churchgoers were reluctant to throw their support behind Trump, this key Republican voting bloc is now his solid base. And they’re missing in this first-in-the-nation primary.

In Iowa last week, Trump improved on his 2016 caucuses performance by 35 points in the most evangelical areas of the state, according to a Washington Post analysis. That’s just the latest evidence that evangelical voters are his to lose. In the 2020 general election, he won 59 percent of voters who attend church at least monthly, according to a Pew Research Center analysis. More than that, Trump moved many of his voters to identify as evangelical Christian, regardless of their church attendance habits.

Evangelicals remain one of the most motivated, active parts of the Republican Party nationwide, and, without that, Trump’s campaign might be missing a little steam. In addition to being less religious, New Hampshire residents have other identity markers that pull them further from Trump’s base. It’s one of the most educated states in the country, and has had an active Libertarian Party. In this respect, New Hampshire Republicans are a bit different from their fellow party members in other states. All of these factors might be giving Haley a small opening, but Trump is still favored to win.

Looking beyond that toward November, New Hampshire has voted for the Democratic candidate in every election save one since 1992. So while the eventual Republican nominee will have a shot, the less religious nature of New Hampshire might be a sign that the state is simply becoming more solidly Democratic like its New England neighbors, at least when it comes to presidential elections.

—Monica Potts, 538