ABC News projects that Trump will win the New Hampshire Republican primary. He currently leads Haley 53 percent to 46 percent with 15 percent of the expected vote reporting. And based on where ballots remain to be counted, I'd expect that margin to widen.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

According to preliminary exit polls, Trump is doing about 10 points better with men than women in New Hampshire. In earlier primary polls, he was running more evenly, or better, with women. With Ramaswamy and DeSantis out of the race (and their endorsement of Trump), Trump likely picked up more support from male voters.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

The first major news organization — the Associated Press — has called the New Hampshire Republican primary for Trump. Our colleagues at the ABC News decision desk, however, have not yet made a projection.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

There are a lot of arguments about whether the current nomination system that we have — influential early contests and the "invisible primary", where fundraising, polls and endorsements show which candidates have support — is effective. There's an argument that this system is effective at "winnowing" candidates who aren't able to unite the party behind them. But in the case of DeSantis dropping out on Sunday — unusual timing — it's not clear that this was especially effective winnowing. From a candidate perspective, maybe. DeSantis lost support as Trump gained it, and he didn't seem to especially strike people as an ascendant presidential figure.

DeSantis's departure from the race was good for consolidating the party around Trump at this stage, which is usually what parties want. But Trump is a complicated figure, and even as the GOP is increasingly his party, it's not totally straightforward. If your takeaway from the Iowa caucuses was that about 40 percent of caucusgoers preferred someone else, then it makes sense that a real contest between Trump and a competitor might have been good to have. Now the Haley campaign is trying to talk about a head-to-head contest. It's hard to know what a two-person race between Haley and Trump would have been like, and pretty difficult to imagine that Haley would be beating Trump now. But competition between Trump and an alternative might have been clearer if it had been a two-person race for longer.

—Julia Azari, 538 contributor

New Hampshire is one of the least religious states in the country. That might help explain why Trump’s closest competitor, Haley, has closed in on his lead a bit there: He’s at 54 percent to her 36 percent. While in 2016, evangelical Christians and regular churchgoers were reluctant to throw their support behind Trump, this key Republican voting bloc is now his solid base. And they’re missing in this first-in-the-nation primary.

In Iowa last week, Trump improved on his 2016 caucuses performance by 35 points in the most evangelical areas of the state, according to a Washington Post analysis. That’s just the latest evidence that evangelical voters are his to lose. In the 2020 general election, he won 59 percent of voters who attend church at least monthly, according to a Pew Research Center analysis. More than that, Trump moved many of his voters to identify as evangelical Christian, regardless of their church attendance habits.

Evangelicals remain one of the most motivated, active parts of the Republican Party nationwide, and, without that, Trump’s campaign might be missing a little steam. In addition to being less religious, New Hampshire residents have other identity markers that pull them further from Trump’s base. It’s one of the most educated states in the country, and has had an active Libertarian Party. In this respect, New Hampshire Republicans are a bit different from their fellow party members in other states. All of these factors might be giving Haley a small opening, but Trump is still favored to win.

Looking beyond that toward November, New Hampshire has voted for the Democratic candidate in every election save one since 1992. So while the eventual Republican nominee will have a shot, the less religious nature of New Hampshire might be a sign that the state is simply becoming more solidly Democratic like its New England neighbors, at least when it comes to presidential elections.

—Monica Potts, 538