Haley said tonight that she's staying in the race, with an eye on the Feb. 24 GOP primary in her home state of South Carolina. Besides the caucuses in the U.S. Virgin Islands on Feb. 8, there won't be another Trump-Haley matchup until South Carolina because Haley didn't file for Nevada's Feb. 8 caucuses, which Trump was expected to easily win even before everyone else dropped out besides Haley. I'd make it a 50-50 proposition whether she stays in until South Carolina, however.

With the Palmetto State up next, I can see why Haley would like to stick around: Maybe she can win over voters in her home state, or something else could happen in the race to cause Trump's position to deteriorate. For instance, he's made some garbled, confused statements in recent days, including appearing to confuse Haley for Nancy Pelosi when talking about the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. Yet Haley also has to keep raising money to keep her campaign alive. That could be a challenge as GOP donors increasingly look ahead to the general election and her chances of defeating Trump look to be between slim and none. Moreover, if her position in South Carolina doesn't improve in the next couple weeks, she may not want to risk taking a big loss on her home turf.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

I think Haley will stay in through South Carolina for the reason Monica stated — to consolidate the non-Trump primary vote, however small. Haley seems to be bolder in her attacks on Trump as time goes on (like drawing attention to his mental fitness as she did tonight). That also tells me she isn't ready to drop out.

— Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

I'm not sure. In earlier live blogs and chats, we've wondered if one candidate could consolidate the non-Trump vote. It looks like Haley has done that in New Hampshire. Thirty-five percent of New Hampshire voters identified with the MAGA movement, according to exit polls, and Haley won 66 percent of those who were not part of the movement. If she wants to prove that there is a contingent of Republicans in the country that do not want a second Trump term, she could stay in and hope that something happens or she gains actual ... wait for it ... momentum. She said in her speech that it's not over, and that's technically true.

—Monica Potts, 538

Hmm, I dunno, Jacob. I kinda think Haley might pull a DeSantis: She thinks she can muddle through now, but in a couple weeks, if she hasn’t made any dent in Trump’s lead in South Carolina, she may decide it’s fruitless and pull the plug. She may want to avoid the embarrassment of losing in her home state. In any event, I am quite sure that Haley will drop out if she loses South Carolina outright — meaning I bet Super Tuesday won’t even be relevant this year.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

It's been only eight days since Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucuses last Monday, but a lot has happened since then. On the night of the caucuses, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out of the race and endorsed former President Donald Trump, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis followed suit on Sunday. With former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson also leaving the race last week, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is Trump's last major competitor standing.

And everyone has their eyes on New Hampshire as potentially the only state where Trump has a realistic chance of losing. Haley has invested heavily in New Hampshire and has been suggesting since early December that today's race would be the start of a competitive two-person primary between her and Trump. She's got her two-person race, but whether it will be remotely competitive remains to be seen. Trump has only continued to consolidate party support since his Iowa victory, and anything less than a convincing win for him would be surprising.

So when might we know? First polls will close tonight at 7 p.m. Eastern, and last polls will close at 8 p.m., which is the earliest time we could have a race projection. But as we did last week (when Trump's victory was projected only 30 minutes after caucuses had begun), we will of course be sticking around no matter what happens to see how each candidate does across the state and discuss what it could mean for the rest of 2024.

And that's not all! Granite State Democrats also have a primary today, and it's a weird one — New Hampshire is violating Democratic primary calendar rules by holding it so early. As a result, President Joe Biden isn't campaigning or even on the ballot, but his competitors, Rep. Dean Phillips and self-help author Marianne Williamson, are. While Biden isn't expected to face serious competition for the actual nomination, his margin of victory today as a write-in candidate could be one early sign of Democrats' grassroots enthusiasm for the incumbent.

Bookmark this page for updates and analysis throughout the night!

—Tia Yang, 538