New York 3rd District special election: Suozzi projected to defeat Pilip for seat vacated by Santos
Democrats cut into Republicans’ already narrow House majority.
Democrat Tom Suozzi has won the special election in New York’s 3rd District, defeating Republican Mazi Pilip to flip a House seat from red to blue. (The seat was formerly held by Republican Rep. George Santos, who was expelled from Congress in December after a series of scandals.) As a result, Republicans’ already narrow House majority has been reduced to 219-213.
Throughout the night, 538 reporters, analysts and contributors have been live-blogging the results in real time and breaking down what (if anything) they mean for November. Read our full analysis below.
Latest headlines:
Answer: This election shouldn’t change our priors
I don’t think this result was ever going to tell us much about November. First of all, as Leah wrote in her preview of the race, this district is weird — it voted for Biden by 8 points, but is also much more Republican down the ballot, so what’s the proper baseline to measure against? Second, the snowstorm probably messed with turnout to the point where it wasn’t indicative of a normal election (if it ever|[ever> was going to be)>. Third, no matter what the result was tonight, it wouldn’t have changed the overall pattern for the cycle of Democrats doing really well in special elections.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Question: Does this tell us anything about November?
We've talked about the fact that tonight's race was between an unusual pair of candidates, under unusual circumstances (special elections, Santos, snow storms, oh my!). But would we be election analysts if we didn't debate ... Does tonight's result tell us anything about November?
—Tia Yang, 538
The polls are looking pretty accurate in NY-03
After that first dump of votes from Nassau County about half an hour ago it looked like Suozzi could have pulled off a double-digit win over Pilip. But with more votes coming now, it looks like those were Democratic-friendly early votes, meaning the Democrat's margin will end up in the mid-to-high single digits.
That is higher than, but really not so not so different from, the polls. The four polls we got of the race with the final set of candidates had Suozzi up by an average of 3 points. So if he wins by 6-10 points, we'll have a 3-7 point polling error in terms of the margin between the candidates.
That's a lot less than the average error for a House general election poll, not to mention polls of House special elections (which tend to be even less accurate). So, maybe this a good reminder for everyone: trust the polls, not the vibes (within reason).
—G. Elliott Morris, 538
Suozzi calls for unity on immigration, Israel-Hamas and taxes
As he began his victory speech in front of supporters, Suozzi was briefly interrupted by a protester who accused him of supporting a genocide in Palestine. He used the moment to pivot to what he saw as the message of his campaign, one that's of course standard in politics: unity over division. "There are divisions in our country where people can’t even talk to each other," he said, adding that the solution was to stop bickering and political infighting and come together to solve problems ranging from immigration to local taxes. It was a message he said would reverberate throughout the country as we head to November.
—Monica Potts, 538