New York 3rd District special election: Suozzi projected to defeat Pilip for seat vacated by Santos
Democrats cut into Republicans’ already narrow House majority.
Democrat Tom Suozzi has won the special election in New York’s 3rd District, defeating Republican Mazi Pilip to flip a House seat from red to blue. (The seat was formerly held by Republican Rep. George Santos, who was expelled from Congress in December after a series of scandals.) As a result, Republicans’ already narrow House majority has been reduced to 219-213.
Throughout the night, 538 reporters, analysts and contributors have been live-blogging the results in real time and breaking down what (if anything) they mean for November. Read our full analysis below.
Latest headlines:
The messaging wars begin again
We’re seeing Democrats take a victory lap. And what they learn from this election is likely to inform how they frame their messaging in key races later this year, even if that’s not necessarily sound political analysis. Here’s a sampling of what I’m seeing Democrats saying publicly so far:
-Abortion is still a salient issue for Democrats in 2024, and so is the argument that the Republican Party has become too extreme.
-Republicans can’t make every congressional race a referendum on Biden’s handling of immigration.
-Trump has lost the suburbs, while Democrats still appeal to working-class voters.
—Leah Askarinam, 538
Sweet Victory
Valentine's Day came early with a election night ending before 11 p.m.
—Brittany Shepherd, ABC News
That extra seat is big for Democrats
With the win tonight, Democrats have narrowed Republicans’ House majority to 219-213. That means Republicans will only be able to afford three defections on votes going forward — otherwise votes will be tied 216-216 and not pass. In addition, Democrats now need to flip only four Republican-held seats in the 2024 election to take back the House.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
ABC News has projected a winner
The ABC News decision desk is now affirming the calls from other sources, projecting that Tom Souzzi will win the race and flip a seat for the Democrats.
—G. Elliott Morris, 538