The AP has projected that Westchester County Executive George Latimer will defeat Rep. Jamaal Bowman in the Democratic primary for New York's 16th District. With 60 percent of the expected vote reporting, Latimer leads about 55 percent to 45 percent. While Bowman has performed extremely well in the small part of the district located in the Bronx, most of the seat is in Westchester, which Latimer is carrying handily. This race was defined largely by internal Democratic divisions over the Israel-Hamas conflict and the influence of pro-Israel groups, although controversies about Bowman's past behavior certainly made him more vulnerable. Most notably, though, United Democracy Project, a super PAC affiliated with the pro-Israel group AIPAC, spent $14.8 million to take down Bowman, who like many in the progressive "Squad" has been sharply critical of Israel's military operations in Gaza (although he also condemned Hamas, too).

Bowman becomes the first Democratic incumbent to lose renomination this cycle and probably the third to lose a primary overall. Republican Rep. Jerry Carl of Alabama lost renomination in an incumbent-versus-incumbent race brought about by redistricting in March, while Republican Rep. Bob Good appears likely to lose his primary in Virginia, although the June 18 primary result was close and Good intends to pay for a recount.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

There's a reason why we average! The Ohio race was super sleepy. This Colorado race was taking place at the same time as a high-profile Republican primary election in the same district. Best not to read anything too much into any individual result.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

As you mentioned earlier, Jacob, Trump won Colorado's 4th District by 19 points in 2020, so Lopez's 21-point win is pretty much exactly in line with the partisanship of the district. That's notable in a year when Democrats have made a lot of hay out of their overperformances in recent special elections, like in Ohio's 6th District a couple weeks ago. It's a good reminder that individual special election results can be noisy. That said, Democrats are still punching above their weight in special elections this year on average by about 6 points, and historically, overperformance in special elections has augured general-election success.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

The AP projects that Greg Lopez will win the special election for Colorado's 4th District, which was vacated by Republican Ken Buck. The former Parker, Colorado, mayor leads Democrat Trisha Calvarese, 58 to 35 percent, with 80 percent of the expected vote counted.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

I'm an Idahoan, so this take might be wildly insular, but I think that Republicans in western states (like Colorado and Utah) are still able to put forward candidates that are conservative enough to ward off Trumpian (typically newcomer) candidates with anti-democratic tendencies, armed with conservative bona fides that still serve what Trumpian conservatism feeds, like anti-establishment, anti-authority authenticity. But it is of a frontier flavor that I think Trump and many Trumpy candidates don't have.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor