According to the Associated Press, businessman and state Rep. Gabe Evans has won the Republican Primary for Colorado's 8th Congressional District. With 64 percent of the vote reporting, he currently has a 78 percent to 22 percent lead over his opponent, Janak Joshi, a physician and former state representative.

Evans will face off against incumbent Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo, who won the district by 1,600 votes in 2022. It is the most competitive seat in Colorado according to the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538

The AP projects that Lauren Boebert will win the GOP nomination in Colorado's 4th District. With 66 percent of the expected votes in and Boebert at a sizable lead above her next closest competitor, Deb Flora, it's (as my dad would say) all over but the crying. Boebert had a big fundraising advantage, Trump's endorsement, and obviously has a ton of name recognition, but after the headlines of the last year, that didn't necessarily equate with a guaranteed win. She had her work cut out for her in this new district, according to her campaign, where voters were skeptical of her reputation. But she reportedly put in the work, trekking all across this district over the last few months. A spokesperson for her campaign told me last month that on Easter weekend alone, she drove the district end-to-end for multiple campaign stops, totaling about 1,000 miles. Whatever combination of hard work, notoriety and deep pockets seems to have worked, and now she can all but cruise into the seat in November in this deep red district.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

With nearly half of the vote reporting in Colorado's 3rd and 8th Congressional Districts, mainline Republican candidates Jeff Hurd and Gabe Evans have pulled ahead of the competition. Evans is endorsed by both Trump and the conservative activist organization Americans for Prosperity, funded by the influential Republican Koch brothers, so no surprises here really. Hurd's race was closer though. Going into the night he had a clear fundraising advantage and the support of several "normie" Republican organizations — like the national cattleman's association and the association of automobile dealers. A victory for Hurd (which looks likely, but there's quite a few rural votes left to be counted) would be a defeat for the other MAGA-aligned candidates in the race — such as Ron Hanks, who has previously called himself a "pro-Trump warrior".

—G. Elliott Morris, 538

In perhaps the highest-profile race of the evening, Latimer leads Bowman 56 percent to 44 percent in the Democratic primary for New York's 16th District, with a little more than a quarter of the overall expected vote reporting, per the AP. Bowman is running up huge numbers in the small part of the district that's in the Bronx — he leads 84 percent to 16 percent there — but about nine-tenths of the district's population lives in Westchester County, where Latimer currently leads 69 percent to 31 percent.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Amid the many primaries taking place tonight, voters in Colorado's 4th District are also choosing their next member of Congress. Buck, frustrated with his own party, resigned from the House early, triggering a special election to fill out the remainder of his term.

Though Boebert is running for a full term in this district, she isn't running in the special. Instead, Republicans nominated Greg Lopez, the former mayor of Parker, Colorado, and a 2022 candidate for governor. Lopez faces Democrat Trisha Calvarese, a speechwriter, in what should be an uncompetitive special election tonight.

But there's at least an outside possibility the race could surprise us. Democrats recently overperformed in another House special election, in Ohio's 6th District, that was thought to be a walkover for the GOP. That seat, vacated by Republican Bill Johnson, had voted for Trump by 29 percentage points in 2020, but the GOP nominee won by 9 points, an overperformance of 20 percent. Colorado's 4th District voted for Trump by 19 points in 2020, so a similar overperformance would result in a very tight race.

However, there are plenty of reasons why that may not be the case. Unlike in Ohio, where the special election was the only race happening in the state and turnout was in the basement, the Colorado special election is concurrent with a statewide primary race that will boost turnout. And in the 4th District specifically, a contentious primary featuring Boebert and a bunch of other candidates will probably boost Republican turnout specifically.

But it wouldn't take a Calvarese win to be good news for Democrats. Historically, special election results have some predictive power, and Democrats have been putting together a healthy record so far ahead of the 2024 elections. Since the beginning of 2023, Democrats have overperformed partisanship in House special elections by 7 points, according to a 538 analysis, and in special elections overall by a similar margin.

At a moment when national polling looks middling at best for Democrats, a stronger-than-expected showing tonight could provide some much-needed comfort.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections