Nathaniel, I think it's hard to undersell $17.7 million in outside spending in New York's 16th District race on behalf of Latimer or against Bowman. AdImpact says this was the most expensive primary ever, and about 4 in 5 dollars spent on ads in the race were from Latimer's side. Much of that was from the AIPAC-affiliated super PAC United Democracy Project, so the easy answer is to say Israel.

However, I don't want to overlook Bowman's various weaknesses and Latimer's strengths, which also were major contributors. Bowman wasn't strong to start with — he won only 54 percent of the primary vote in 2022 — and he'd suffered from more recent controversies such as pulling a fire alarm in a House office building and 9/11 conspiracy theory postings found on his old blog. Tellingly, groups like UDP mostly attacked Bowman for his past votes that didn't align with Biden rather than go after him on Israel. Latimer, meanwhile, has a long history in Westchester politics and may be about the strongest possible challenger Bowman could've gotten in this primary.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Nathaniel, I won't shy away from what I see as the big weaknesses for Bowman: Democratic progressives right now are upset at incumbents for the high cost of living and America's pro-Israel policies, so it's likely he lost some votes there — as evidenced by a projected decline in turnout from his constituency (from 90,000 votes in 2020 to around 70,000 today, if I reverse-engineer the AP's "expected vote" math).

But the bigger, um #ackshually answer I'll offer is that he was never that popular in the district. In 2020, when Bowman won his primary victory against unpopular incumbent moderate Democrat Eliot Engel, he won by only 14 points. And in 2022, he faced no real primary threat, inflating his appearance of a dominant incumbent.

The money spent for George Latimer by outside groups, of course, also likely has a lot to do with tonight's results. PACs don't spend over $20 million in U.S. House primary elections for nothing!

—G. Elliott Morris, 538

OK, guys, there are going to be a lot of hot takes out there tonight and tomorrow about why Bowman lost. But this is a smart, data-driven crew. What do you all think was the primary reason?

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

The AP projects that New York Rep. Claudia Tenney will win the Republican primary in New York's 24th District. We figured she was favored, but Tenney only defeated the same opponent, businessman Mario Fratto, by 14 points in the 2022 primary here, so we were keeping an eye on this one. However, with 36 percent of the expected vote reporting, Tenney leads 65 percent to 35 percent, per AP, so she looks set to survive and win reelection in this solidly red Upstate seat.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

In Colorado's 5th District, around Colorado Springs, there's a competitive GOP race to replace retiring GOP Rep. Doug Lamborn. The battle is between conservative radio host Jeff Crank and Dave Williams, the state GOP chair. Along with his talk radio gig, Crank has a background in politics, having previously worked as a regional vice president for Americans for Prosperity, and a staffer for former Rep. Joel Hefley.

Crank is the more traditional conservative pick, whereas Williams, a former state representative, has made a name for himself in the state as a MAGA provocateur and has been endorsed by the political arm of the far-right House Freedom Caucus. In 2022, when he challenged Lamborn in the primary, Williams petitioned (and failed) to add the slogan "Let's Go Brandon" to his name on the ballot, and as leader of the state party, he has taken it on a polarizing and notably hard-right tack. Under his leadership, the party advised county canvass boards not to certify the 2022 election results, and has sent out emails calling LGBTQ+ pride month "evil." It has also started endorsing candidates in primaries, something the party historically remained neutral on.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, this has led conservative power brokers to dump millions into the race: The Koch Brothers' PAC has spent over $100,000 supporting Crank, while a super PAC of Republican megadonors has spent $1.2 million opposing Williams. As the only district in the state to have never been represented by a Democrat in Congress, the GOP primary will be a crucial one to watch to see if the ranks of the Freedom Caucus are likely to grow by one.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538