The AP now estimates that 48 percent of the expected vote has reported in the Democratic primary for New York's 16th District, and Latimer holds a 10-point lead over Bowman, 55 percent to 45 percent. Latimer is winning 63 percent of the vote in Westchester County, which he leads as county executive, and which will cast the vast majority of votes in this seat. A projection may not be far away here.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

With Boebert's win, the VIEW PAC endorsed candidate, Flora, is out. As I mentioned earlier on the blog, this race was interesting to me because it pitted two GOP women's groups against each other. VIEW PAC endorsed Flora, while Maggie's List endorsed Boebert. VIEW PAC has a history of being anti-Freedom Caucus, so it wasn't surprising they didn't back Boebert, but it was somewhat surprising they endorsed in the race at all. Of course, as the saying goes, women (even within the same party) are not a monolith!

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

According to the Associated Press, businessman and state Rep. Gabe Evans has won the Republican Primary for Colorado's 8th Congressional District. With 64 percent of the vote reporting, he currently has a 78 percent to 22 percent lead over his opponent, Janak Joshi, a physician and former state representative.

Evans will face off against incumbent Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo, who won the district by 1,600 votes in 2022. It is the most competitive seat in Colorado according to the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538

The AP projects that Lauren Boebert will win the GOP nomination in Colorado's 4th District. With 66 percent of the expected votes in and Boebert at a sizable lead above her next closest competitor, Deb Flora, it's (as my dad would say) all over but the crying. Boebert had a big fundraising advantage, Trump's endorsement, and obviously has a ton of name recognition, but after the headlines of the last year, that didn't necessarily equate with a guaranteed win. She had her work cut out for her in this new district, according to her campaign, where voters were skeptical of her reputation. But she reportedly put in the work, trekking all across this district over the last few months. A spokesperson for her campaign told me last month that on Easter weekend alone, she drove the district end-to-end for multiple campaign stops, totaling about 1,000 miles. Whatever combination of hard work, notoriety and deep pockets seems to have worked, and now she can all but cruise into the seat in November in this deep red district.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

In Tuesday's marquee race, Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman could lose renomination against Westchester County Executive George Latimer in New York's dark blue 16th District. This race is defined by internal Democratic divisions over the Israel-Gaza conflict, the influence of pro-Israel groups and controversies about Bowman's past behavior. Bowman has joined with fellow members of the progressive "Squad" and some other Democrats to criticize and oppose U.S. support for Israel, a position that made him a major target for pro-Israel groups.

Bowman lacks a strong electoral record, having won only 54 percent of the primary vote in his first reelection campaign in 2022. He also attracted scrutiny last September when he pulled a fire alarm in a Capitol Hill office building just before a high-profile vote to avoid a government shutdown, for which he was censured by the House and had to pay a fine. On top of this, old blog posts by Bowman came to light in January that included conspiracy theories about the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001. All of this has helped boost the primary challenge from Latimer, who's also built up a strong local political reputation in Westchester County — where 9 in 10 of the district's voters live, according to Daily Kos Elections.

Still, the big story is Latimer's support from pro-Israel donors and organizations. Latimer has raised $5.8 million, $2.4 million of which came via individual donors who used the American Israel Public Affairs Committee as a conduit to contribute to his campaign. This has helped give him a financial leg up on Bowman, who has raised $4.3 million. And the monetary disparity grows far starker when we look at outside spending. Groups have spent a whopping $17.7 million either opposing Bowman or supporting Latimer, according to OpenSecrets, while they've spent only $3.0 million attacking Latimer or boosting Bowman. As a result, this has turned into the most expensive House primary on record, according to AdImpact.

The principal group behind the massive spending is United Democracy Project, a super PAC affiliated with AIPAC, which has forked out $14.6 million on the race to take down Bowman. Despite the pro-Israel connection, the group's ads rarely mention the ongoing conflict, instead criticizing Bowman on issues such as not supporting President Joe Biden's position on a major infrastructure package in 2021 and a debt ceiling deal in 2023. Bowman and his allies haven't taken this lying down. In the last primary debate, Bowman attacked the "racist MAGA Republicans" — a reference to AIPAC's bipartisan sources of financial backing — supporting Latimer, a criticism leveled in ads put out by Bowman and outside groups backing him.

The most recent survey of the race — an Emerson College/The Hill/WPIX poll from early June — found Latimer ahead of Bowman 48 percent to 31 percent, which signals just how in danger Bowman is of becoming the first Democratic incumbent to lose renomination in 2024.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538