With an estimated 30 percent of the vote counted in the Utah Republican primary for Senate, Curtis leads with 54 percent, followed by Staggs at 27 percent, Wilson at 13 percent and Walton at 6 percent. That result is pretty much in line with what polling said and, if it holds, would represent the third loss for a Trump-endorsed candidate (Staggs) tonight.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

There's probably a lot of reasons that Bowman lost, Nathaniel, but going all in on pro-Palestinian rhetoric, even to the very end probably didn't help. In the Emerson College/PIX 11/The Hill poll of the race a few weeks ago, 45 percent of voters said Latimer's views were more aligned with theirs on the war between Israel and Hamas, compared with 29 percent who said Bowman's views were more aligned with theirs. And statewide, it doesn't seem to be a winning issue for Democrats: In a Slingshot Strategies poll taken during the protests in May, 44 percent of voters statewide said the protests made them less sympathetic to the pro-Palestinian viewpoint, compared with 23 percent who said they were more sympathetic.

I'm sure many folks will also point out there's also a significant Jewish population in Westchester County, but I think even absent that demographic, these ideas just aren't that popular in the district or in the state. Bowman could have leaned away from that position and tried to bolster his other progressive bona fides, but he ... didn't.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

Nathaniel, I think it's hard to undersell $17.7 million in outside spending in New York's 16th District race on behalf of Latimer or against Bowman. AdImpact says this was the most expensive primary ever, and about 4 in 5 dollars spent on ads in the race were from Latimer's side. Much of that was from the AIPAC-affiliated super PAC United Democracy Project, so the easy answer is to say Israel.

However, I don't want to overlook Bowman's various weaknesses and Latimer's strengths, which also were major contributors. Bowman wasn't strong to start with — he won only 54 percent of the primary vote in 2022 — and he'd suffered from more recent controversies such as pulling a fire alarm in a House office building and 9/11 conspiracy theory postings found on his old blog. Tellingly, groups like UDP mostly attacked Bowman for his past votes that didn't align with Biden rather than go after him on Israel. Latimer, meanwhile, has a long history in Westchester politics and may be about the strongest possible challenger Bowman could've gotten in this primary.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Nathaniel, I won't shy away from what I see as the big weaknesses for Bowman: Democratic progressives right now are upset at incumbents for the high cost of living and America's pro-Israel policies, so it's likely he lost some votes there — as evidenced by a projected decline in turnout from his constituency (from 90,000 votes in 2020 to around 70,000 today, if I reverse-engineer the AP's "expected vote" math).

But the bigger, um #ackshually answer I'll offer is that he was never that popular in the district. In 2020, when Bowman won his primary victory against unpopular incumbent moderate Democrat Eliot Engel, he won by only 14 points. And in 2022, he faced no real primary threat, inflating his appearance of a dominant incumbent.

The money spent for George Latimer by outside groups, of course, also likely has a lot to do with tonight's results. PACs don't spend over $20 million in U.S. House primary elections for nothing!

—G. Elliott Morris, 538

After coming within 600 votes of losing her seat in the 2022 midterm election and enduring an awful year in her personal life, Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert has ditched her district to attempt to win over Republican voters on the other side of the state, in the 4th District. This seat, which was previously held by Republican Rep. Ken Buck — who resigned earlier this year after announcing his retirement last year — is more reliably red, having gone for Trump by a margin of 19 percentage points in 2020 (compared to an 8-point margin in the 3rd). So if Boebert can secure the GOP nomination, she'll all but guarantee herself a spot in the next Congress.

Standing in her way are some primary candidates with more local cachet, such as former state Sen. Jerry Sonnenberg and Deborah Flora, a former Miss Colorado and local talk radio host. However, Boebert has a major fundraising advantage (she's raised $3.7 million, compared to the next-highest raiser, Flora, who's raised less than half a million), as well as Trump's endorsement, and the sole poll we have for this race shows her up 35 percentage points. So she's definitely got a solid shot at the primary in her new district.

In addition to the race to fill this seat in the 119th Congress, there is a separate special election to see out Buck's term. Republicans are favored to win that race.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538