I'm an Idahoan, so this take might be wildly insular, but I think that Republicans in western states (like Colorado and Utah) are still able to put forward candidates that are conservative enough to ward off Trumpian (typically newcomer) candidates with anti-democratic tendencies, armed with conservative bona fides that still serve what Trumpian conservatism feeds, like anti-establishment, anti-authority authenticity. But it is of a frontier flavor that I think Trump and many Trumpy candidates don't have.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

It's not exactly breaking news that Trump has a strong hold over the GOP. But if you look at the three cases where his endorsees lost tonight, each pick had potential challenges, either because of their own weaknesses as candidates or strong candidates running against them. In South Carolina's 3rd District, Mark Burns had a controversial past that invited outside spending to help his opponent, and Burns also barely raised any money from donors, mostly self-funding his bid with loans. In Colorado's 5th District, Dave Williams had rubbed a lot of people the wrong way as state party chair, to the extent that outside groups spent more than $2.6 million against him or on behalf of his main primary opponent. And Trump doesn't have as firm a hold over GOP politics in Utah, indicative of how his endorsee, Trent Staggs, couldn't beat out the establishment choice in Rep. John Curtis, who had a stronger track record as an incumbent congressman and received a ton of outside support.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Trump made some ill-advised endorsements in today's races, and it feels to me like they were based more on his own personal taste rather than any kind of strategy. Williams in Colorado’s 5th District has been very outspoken, he’s an election denier, he’s made controversial, identity politics stands as the state GOP chair, and it could just be that Trump liked his MAGAness or the fact that he seized control of the state party in the way he did. I doubt his team would have chosen Williams as the endorsee, I suspect this was all Trump, and a similar scenario may have happened with Staggs and Burns.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

Going into tonight, Trump had only endorsed one candidate for Senate, House or governor who lost. Tonight alone, he endorsed three. Why do you guys think Trump failed so badly tonight? Was it just bad luck, or something real?

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

And with that, we’re calling a lid on one of the busiest primary nights of the year! Here’s a recap of what went down.

First, in the two highest-profile races of the night, controversial incumbents went 1-for-2:

- In New York’s 16th District, the AP has projected that Westchester County Executive George Latimer will defeat progressive Rep. Jamaal Bowman in the Democratic primary. This race was defined largely by internal Democratic divisions over the Israel-Hamas conflict and the influence of pro-Israel groups, although controversies about Bowman's past behavior certainly made him more vulnerable.

- In Colorado’s 4th District, the AP has projected that Rep. Lauren Boebert will win the GOP nomination. Boebert caused a lot of grumbling after switching districts from the 3rd, on the other side of the state, but she ultimately won easily thanks to her big fundraising advantage, Trump’s endorsement and ton of name recognition.

It was a bad night for Trump-endorsed candidates in competitive races, three of whom lost:

- The AP has projected that Air National Guard Lt. Col. Sheri Biggs will narrowly defeat Trump-endorsed pastor Mark Burns in the Republican runoff in South Carolina’s 3rd District..

- According to the AP, Jeff Crank, a conservative talk radio host, won the Republican primary in Colorado’s 5th District, defeating state party chair and Trump endorsee Dave Williams.

-In the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Utah, Rep. John Curtis defeated Trump-endorsed Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs. Curtis will follow in the moderate footsteps of Sen. Mitt Romney, who is retiring from this seat.

Both parties also chose their nominees for some competitive House races this fall — and in general, they chose the more electable options.

- The AP has projected attorney Jeff Hurd will win the Republican primary in Colorado's 3rd District. Republicans avoided nominating former state Rep. Ron Hanks, who was so conservative he risked losing this light-red seat to Democrat Adam Frisch.

- The AP has projected that state Rep. Gabe Evans has won the Republican primary for Colorado's 8th District over state-party-endorsed Janak Joshi. Evans will face off in November against Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo, who won this district by just over 1,600 votes in 2022.

- In New York’s 1st District, former CNN anchor John Avlon won the Democratic primary against 2020 nominee Nancy Goroff. He’ll face Republican Rep. Nick LaLota this fall.

- In New York’s 22nd District, the AP has projected that state Sen. John Mannion will win the Democratic primary against DeWitt Town Councilor Sarah Klee Hood. Mannion will face Republican Rep. Brandon Williams in this blue-leaning district in the general.

However, conservative Republicans did score a win in one solid-red open seat:

- In Utah’s 3rd District, the AP has projected that state Sen. Mike Kennedy, who was endorsed by Sen. Mike Lee, will win the GOP nomination to succeed Curtis. Kennedy outpaced four other contenders, including trampoline tycoon Case Lawrence, who self-funded his bid but came in second place.

Finally, a number of other incumbents also beat back notable challengers tonight:

- The AP has projected that incumbent Gov. Spencer Cox will defeat state Rep. Phil Lyman in the Republican primary for Utah governor. However, Lyman, who was running to Cox’s right, still took more than 40 percent of the vote.

- Moderate Rep. Blake Moore also won renomination in Utah’s 1st District, according to the AP, easily dispatching a more conservative challenger.

- The AP has projected that Rep. Claudia Tenney will win the Republican primary in New York's 24th District over businessman Mario Fratto, who came within 14 points of unseating her in 2022.

—G. Elliott Morris, Monica Potts, Nathaniel Rakich, Kaleigh Rogers and Geoffrey Skelley, 538; Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor; and Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections