Nathaniel, I think it's hard to undersell $17.7 million in outside spending in New York's 16th District race on behalf of Latimer or against Bowman. AdImpact says this was the most expensive primary ever, and about 4 in 5 dollars spent on ads in the race were from Latimer's side. Much of that was from the AIPAC-affiliated super PAC United Democracy Project, so the easy answer is to say Israel.

However, I don't want to overlook Bowman's various weaknesses and Latimer's strengths, which also were major contributors. Bowman wasn't strong to start with — he won only 54 percent of the primary vote in 2022 — and he'd suffered from more recent controversies such as pulling a fire alarm in a House office building and 9/11 conspiracy theory postings found on his old blog. Tellingly, groups like UDP mostly attacked Bowman for his past votes that didn't align with Biden rather than go after him on Israel. Latimer, meanwhile, has a long history in Westchester politics and may be about the strongest possible challenger Bowman could've gotten in this primary.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Nathaniel, I won't shy away from what I see as the big weaknesses for Bowman: Democratic progressives right now are upset at incumbents for the high cost of living and America's pro-Israel policies, so it's likely he lost some votes there — as evidenced by a projected decline in turnout from his constituency (from 90,000 votes in 2020 to around 70,000 today, if I reverse-engineer the AP's "expected vote" math).

But the bigger, um #ackshually answer I'll offer is that he was never that popular in the district. In 2020, when Bowman won his primary victory against unpopular incumbent moderate Democrat Eliot Engel, he won by only 14 points. And in 2022, he faced no real primary threat, inflating his appearance of a dominant incumbent.

The money spent for George Latimer by outside groups, of course, also likely has a lot to do with tonight's results. PACs don't spend over $20 million in U.S. House primary elections for nothing!

—G. Elliott Morris, 538

OK, guys, there are going to be a lot of hot takes out there tonight and tomorrow about why Bowman lost. But this is a smart, data-driven crew. What do you all think was the primary reason?

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

The AP projects that New York Rep. Claudia Tenney will win the Republican primary in New York's 24th District. We figured she was favored, but Tenney only defeated the same opponent, businessman Mario Fratto, by 14 points in the 2022 primary here, so we were keeping an eye on this one. However, with 36 percent of the expected vote reporting, Tenney leads 65 percent to 35 percent, per AP, so she looks set to survive and win reelection in this solidly red Upstate seat.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

And with that, we’re calling a lid on one of the busiest primary nights of the year! Here’s a recap of what went down.

First, in the two highest-profile races of the night, controversial incumbents went 1-for-2:

- In New York’s 16th District, the AP has projected that Westchester County Executive George Latimer will defeat progressive Rep. Jamaal Bowman in the Democratic primary. This race was defined largely by internal Democratic divisions over the Israel-Hamas conflict and the influence of pro-Israel groups, although controversies about Bowman's past behavior certainly made him more vulnerable.

- In Colorado’s 4th District, the AP has projected that Rep. Lauren Boebert will win the GOP nomination. Boebert caused a lot of grumbling after switching districts from the 3rd, on the other side of the state, but she ultimately won easily thanks to her big fundraising advantage, Trump’s endorsement and ton of name recognition.

It was a bad night for Trump-endorsed candidates in competitive races, three of whom lost:

- The AP has projected that Air National Guard Lt. Col. Sheri Biggs will narrowly defeat Trump-endorsed pastor Mark Burns in the Republican runoff in South Carolina’s 3rd District..

- According to the AP, Jeff Crank, a conservative talk radio host, won the Republican primary in Colorado’s 5th District, defeating state party chair and Trump endorsee Dave Williams.

-In the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Utah, Rep. John Curtis defeated Trump-endorsed Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs. Curtis will follow in the moderate footsteps of Sen. Mitt Romney, who is retiring from this seat.

Both parties also chose their nominees for some competitive House races this fall — and in general, they chose the more electable options.

- The AP has projected attorney Jeff Hurd will win the Republican primary in Colorado's 3rd District. Republicans avoided nominating former state Rep. Ron Hanks, who was so conservative he risked losing this light-red seat to Democrat Adam Frisch.

- The AP has projected that state Rep. Gabe Evans has won the Republican primary for Colorado's 8th District over state-party-endorsed Janak Joshi. Evans will face off in November against Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo, who won this district by just over 1,600 votes in 2022.

- In New York’s 1st District, former CNN anchor John Avlon won the Democratic primary against 2020 nominee Nancy Goroff. He’ll face Republican Rep. Nick LaLota this fall.

- In New York’s 22nd District, the AP has projected that state Sen. John Mannion will win the Democratic primary against DeWitt Town Councilor Sarah Klee Hood. Mannion will face Republican Rep. Brandon Williams in this blue-leaning district in the general.

However, conservative Republicans did score a win in one solid-red open seat:

- In Utah’s 3rd District, the AP has projected that state Sen. Mike Kennedy, who was endorsed by Sen. Mike Lee, will win the GOP nomination to succeed Curtis. Kennedy outpaced four other contenders, including trampoline tycoon Case Lawrence, who self-funded his bid but came in second place.

Finally, a number of other incumbents also beat back notable challengers tonight:

- The AP has projected that incumbent Gov. Spencer Cox will defeat state Rep. Phil Lyman in the Republican primary for Utah governor. However, Lyman, who was running to Cox’s right, still took more than 40 percent of the vote.

- Moderate Rep. Blake Moore also won renomination in Utah’s 1st District, according to the AP, easily dispatching a more conservative challenger.

- The AP has projected that Rep. Claudia Tenney will win the Republican primary in New York's 24th District over businessman Mario Fratto, who came within 14 points of unseating her in 2022.

—G. Elliott Morris, Monica Potts, Nathaniel Rakich, Kaleigh Rogers and Geoffrey Skelley, 538; Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor; and Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections