The Republican primary to replace Curtis in Utah's 3rd District is far more unsettled than the Senate race. In the absence of any polls, fundraising numbers make this look like a two-person race between trampoline baron Case Lawrence and Roosevelt Mayor Rod Bird. Lawrence, who founded the indoor trampoline park chain Sky Zone, has brought in $2.8 million ($2.5 million of which was self-funded) and has styled himself as an optimistic problem-solver opposed to hardline tactics like government shutdowns. By contrast, Bird, who loaned himself $1.0 million of the $1.2 million he's raised, has used more partisan language and has pledged to "tie the hands of Congress" unless it balances the budget.

Three other candidates, though, could still be factors despite being underfunded. State Sen. Mike Kennedy has the backing of conservative Sen. Mike Lee and, while he's raised only $587,000, he has raised more from individual donors than any other candidate. Romney, meanwhile, is supporting his nephew-in-law, former Utah County GOP Chair Stewart Peay. And state Auditor John Dougall is running as the race's only explicit anti-Trump candidate.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Kaleigh, tonight could be a bad night for Trump endorsees. One (Staggs) is already the underdog to win, and a second (Burns) is now in real danger of losing in South Carolina. And some of his other endorsees, like Williams, aren't shoo-ins either …

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Trump has endorsed 18 candidates in Republican primaries tonight, though 12 are incumbents. Trump's track record of picking winners has been very strong this primary season — so far, only one candidate he endorsed for Congress or governor races has lost her primary: Mendham Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner in New Jersey's Senate race. But Trump often pads his numbers by endorsing candidates who are locks to win, and tonight he's made a few riskier calls that might lower his batting average.

Consider Colorado's 5th District, around Colorado Springs in the middle of the state. In the race to replace Lamborn, Trump has endorsed Williams over Crank. As I wrote earlier, Crank has the backing of traditional GOP groups that have spent millions opposing Williams, so Trump may have his money on the dark horse in this race.

A similar showdown is happening in Utah for Romney's seat. Trump is backing Staggs, but Curtis seems favored to win the GOP nomination.

I'll be tracking all of these races, and more, tonight to see where Trump's endorsement track record lands.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

Utah may be safely Republican, but the MAGA faction of the party is looking to pick up seats from the traditional Republican faction in Tuesday's primaries. And the biggest prize of all is the state's open U.S. Senate seat, currently held by anti-Trump Sen. Mitt Romney.

The front-runner to replace Romney is Rep. John Curtis, whose temperament — and attitude toward Trump — are closest to Romney's. Although he hasn't taken a high-profile stand against Trump like voting for impeachment, Curtis declined to endorse Trump during this year's presidential primaries and has avoided commenting on Trump's legal issues. Another tell: Though Romney hasn't made an endorsement, much of the incumbent's political operation is behind Curtis, who is known on Capitol Hill for being the rare Republican to talk about climate change and for owning 300 pairs of quirky dress socks.

Curtis faces three opponents who are, to varying degrees, more enthusiastic about Trump. Former state House Speaker Brad Wilson has raised the most money ($2.0 million from donors, $3.0 million from himself), but his efforts to strike a happy medium between moderate and MAGA (he introduced a resolution to pay tribute to Trump shortly after his second impeachment but also blocked an effort to censure Romney for voting to convict; he endorsed Trump for president, but only after Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis dropped out) may end up pleasing no one. Meanwhile, businessman Jason Walton has vocally defended Trump and is well funded thanks to a $2.5 million loan to his own campaign, but Trump himself opted to support underfunded Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs instead.

That surprising endorsement may have cost MAGA Republicans their best shot at defeating Curtis. Not only has Curtis raised $3.8 million on his own, but outside groups largely funded by moderate Republican donors have spent a whopping $9.6 million to help him or hurt Staggs. As a result, a [June 4-6 poll from HarrisX/the Deseret News/the University of Utah]) put Curtis at 47 percent support, with Wilson (24 percent), Staggs (21 percent) and Walton (8 percent) well behind.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

And with that, we’re calling a lid on one of the busiest primary nights of the year! Here’s a recap of what went down.

First, in the two highest-profile races of the night, controversial incumbents went 1-for-2:

- In New York’s 16th District, the AP has projected that Westchester County Executive George Latimer will defeat progressive Rep. Jamaal Bowman in the Democratic primary. This race was defined largely by internal Democratic divisions over the Israel-Hamas conflict and the influence of pro-Israel groups, although controversies about Bowman's past behavior certainly made him more vulnerable.

- In Colorado’s 4th District, the AP has projected that Rep. Lauren Boebert will win the GOP nomination. Boebert caused a lot of grumbling after switching districts from the 3rd, on the other side of the state, but she ultimately won easily thanks to her big fundraising advantage, Trump’s endorsement and ton of name recognition.

It was a bad night for Trump-endorsed candidates in competitive races, three of whom lost:

- The AP has projected that Air National Guard Lt. Col. Sheri Biggs will narrowly defeat Trump-endorsed pastor Mark Burns in the Republican runoff in South Carolina’s 3rd District..

- According to the AP, Jeff Crank, a conservative talk radio host, won the Republican primary in Colorado’s 5th District, defeating state party chair and Trump endorsee Dave Williams.

-In the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Utah, Rep. John Curtis defeated Trump-endorsed Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs. Curtis will follow in the moderate footsteps of Sen. Mitt Romney, who is retiring from this seat.

Both parties also chose their nominees for some competitive House races this fall — and in general, they chose the more electable options.

- The AP has projected attorney Jeff Hurd will win the Republican primary in Colorado's 3rd District. Republicans avoided nominating former state Rep. Ron Hanks, who was so conservative he risked losing this light-red seat to Democrat Adam Frisch.

- The AP has projected that state Rep. Gabe Evans has won the Republican primary for Colorado's 8th District over state-party-endorsed Janak Joshi. Evans will face off in November against Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo, who won this district by just over 1,600 votes in 2022.

- In New York’s 1st District, former CNN anchor John Avlon won the Democratic primary against 2020 nominee Nancy Goroff. He’ll face Republican Rep. Nick LaLota this fall.

- In New York’s 22nd District, the AP has projected that state Sen. John Mannion will win the Democratic primary against DeWitt Town Councilor Sarah Klee Hood. Mannion will face Republican Rep. Brandon Williams in this blue-leaning district in the general.

However, conservative Republicans did score a win in one solid-red open seat:

- In Utah’s 3rd District, the AP has projected that state Sen. Mike Kennedy, who was endorsed by Sen. Mike Lee, will win the GOP nomination to succeed Curtis. Kennedy outpaced four other contenders, including trampoline tycoon Case Lawrence, who self-funded his bid but came in second place.

Finally, a number of other incumbents also beat back notable challengers tonight:

- The AP has projected that incumbent Gov. Spencer Cox will defeat state Rep. Phil Lyman in the Republican primary for Utah governor. However, Lyman, who was running to Cox’s right, still took more than 40 percent of the vote.

- Moderate Rep. Blake Moore also won renomination in Utah’s 1st District, according to the AP, easily dispatching a more conservative challenger.

- The AP has projected that Rep. Claudia Tenney will win the Republican primary in New York's 24th District over businessman Mario Fratto, who came within 14 points of unseating her in 2022.

—G. Elliott Morris, Monica Potts, Nathaniel Rakich, Kaleigh Rogers and Geoffrey Skelley, 538; Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor; and Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections