With an estimated 30 percent of the vote counted in the Utah Republican primary for Senate, Curtis leads with 54 percent, followed by Staggs at 27 percent, Wilson at 13 percent and Walton at 6 percent. That result is pretty much in line with what polling said and, if it holds, would represent the third loss for a Trump-endorsed candidate (Staggs) tonight.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

There's probably a lot of reasons that Bowman lost, Nathaniel, but going all in on pro-Palestinian rhetoric, even to the very end probably didn't help. In the Emerson College/PIX 11/The Hill poll of the race a few weeks ago, 45 percent of voters said Latimer's views were more aligned with theirs on the war between Israel and Hamas, compared with 29 percent who said Bowman's views were more aligned with theirs. And statewide, it doesn't seem to be a winning issue for Democrats: In a Slingshot Strategies poll taken during the protests in May, 44 percent of voters statewide said the protests made them less sympathetic to the pro-Palestinian viewpoint, compared with 23 percent who said they were more sympathetic.

I'm sure many folks will also point out there's also a significant Jewish population in Westchester County, but I think even absent that demographic, these ideas just aren't that popular in the district or in the state. Bowman could have leaned away from that position and tried to bolster his other progressive bona fides, but he ... didn't.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

Nathaniel, I think it's hard to undersell $17.7 million in outside spending in New York's 16th District race on behalf of Latimer or against Bowman. AdImpact says this was the most expensive primary ever, and about 4 in 5 dollars spent on ads in the race were from Latimer's side. Much of that was from the AIPAC-affiliated super PAC United Democracy Project, so the easy answer is to say Israel.

However, I don't want to overlook Bowman's various weaknesses and Latimer's strengths, which also were major contributors. Bowman wasn't strong to start with — he won only 54 percent of the primary vote in 2022 — and he'd suffered from more recent controversies such as pulling a fire alarm in a House office building and 9/11 conspiracy theory postings found on his old blog. Tellingly, groups like UDP mostly attacked Bowman for his past votes that didn't align with Biden rather than go after him on Israel. Latimer, meanwhile, has a long history in Westchester politics and may be about the strongest possible challenger Bowman could've gotten in this primary.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Nathaniel, I won't shy away from what I see as the big weaknesses for Bowman: Democratic progressives right now are upset at incumbents for the high cost of living and America's pro-Israel policies, so it's likely he lost some votes there — as evidenced by a projected decline in turnout from his constituency (from 90,000 votes in 2020 to around 70,000 today, if I reverse-engineer the AP's "expected vote" math).

But the bigger, um #ackshually answer I'll offer is that he was never that popular in the district. In 2020, when Bowman won his primary victory against unpopular incumbent moderate Democrat Eliot Engel, he won by only 14 points. And in 2022, he faced no real primary threat, inflating his appearance of a dominant incumbent.

The money spent for George Latimer by outside groups, of course, also likely has a lot to do with tonight's results. PACs don't spend over $20 million in U.S. House primary elections for nothing!

—G. Elliott Morris, 538

As usual, tonight we'll be tracking candidates in Colorado's, New York's and Utah's primaries, along with one runoff in South Carolina, whose campaign websites use the phrase "pro-life," "sanctity of life," "right to life," "protect life," "no abortion," "against abortion" or "unborn" and do not say abortion is an issue of states' rights.

In South Carolina, abortion is banned after six weeks. In the 3rd District runoff there, Biggs describes herself as anti-abortion and has promised to "defend the sanctity of life" if elected. She has also been endorsed by Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America.

Abortion is banned in Utah after 18 weeks. All four Republican Senate candidates and at least one Republican House candidate in each of the state's four congressional districts are on our list, including 4th District Rep. Burgess Owens, who is running unopposed. Republican Gov. Spencer Cox is also anti-abortion, but he is nevertheless facing a challenge from the right by state Rep. Phil Lyman, who argues the governor is too moderate overall. Whoever wins the primary is likely to succeed in November against the Democratic challenger, state Rep. Brian King.

By contrast, New York law protects abortion rights, and voters may have a chance to enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution if a proposed Equal Rights Amendment makes it onto the November ballot. Three Republican candidates in New York state are on our list. In the Republican-leaning 23rd and 24th districts, Rep. Nicholas Langworthy is running unopposed, and Mario Fratto, who lost to Rep. Claudia Tenney in 2022, is challenging the incumbent from the right again. But the Republican incumbent in the 22nd district, Rep. Brandon Williams, is more vulnerable, as redistricting left the district slightly bluer. Indeed, while New York Democrats plan to campaign on abortion rights to drive voters to the polls in November, Republicans in the state have been downplaying the issue.

—Monica Potts, 538