Nathaniel, I think it's hard to undersell $17.7 million in outside spending in New York's 16th District race on behalf of Latimer or against Bowman. AdImpact says this was the most expensive primary ever, and about 4 in 5 dollars spent on ads in the race were from Latimer's side. Much of that was from the AIPAC-affiliated super PAC United Democracy Project, so the easy answer is to say Israel.

However, I don't want to overlook Bowman's various weaknesses and Latimer's strengths, which also were major contributors. Bowman wasn't strong to start with — he won only 54 percent of the primary vote in 2022 — and he'd suffered from more recent controversies such as pulling a fire alarm in a House office building and 9/11 conspiracy theory postings found on his old blog. Tellingly, groups like UDP mostly attacked Bowman for his past votes that didn't align with Biden rather than go after him on Israel. Latimer, meanwhile, has a long history in Westchester politics and may be about the strongest possible challenger Bowman could've gotten in this primary.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Nathaniel, I won't shy away from what I see as the big weaknesses for Bowman: Democratic progressives right now are upset at incumbents for the high cost of living and America's pro-Israel policies, so it's likely he lost some votes there — as evidenced by a projected decline in turnout from his constituency (from 90,000 votes in 2020 to around 70,000 today, if I reverse-engineer the AP's "expected vote" math).

But the bigger, um #ackshually answer I'll offer is that he was never that popular in the district. In 2020, when Bowman won his primary victory against unpopular incumbent moderate Democrat Eliot Engel, he won by only 14 points. And in 2022, he faced no real primary threat, inflating his appearance of a dominant incumbent.

The money spent for George Latimer by outside groups, of course, also likely has a lot to do with tonight's results. PACs don't spend over $20 million in U.S. House primary elections for nothing!

—G. Elliott Morris, 538

OK, guys, there are going to be a lot of hot takes out there tonight and tomorrow about why Bowman lost. But this is a smart, data-driven crew. What do you all think was the primary reason?

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

The AP projects that New York Rep. Claudia Tenney will win the Republican primary in New York's 24th District. We figured she was favored, but Tenney only defeated the same opponent, businessman Mario Fratto, by 14 points in the 2022 primary here, so we were keeping an eye on this one. However, with 36 percent of the expected vote reporting, Tenney leads 65 percent to 35 percent, per AP, so she looks set to survive and win reelection in this solidly red Upstate seat.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

According to our analysis of primaries this cycle through May 21, 41 percent of Democrats' nominees for House, Senate and governor are women, compared with just 16 percent of Republicans' nominees. It wasn't until June 11 that Republicans nominated a nonincumbent woman in a seat they're strongly favored to win in November: Julie Fedorchak in North Dakota's at-large district. But today's races present a couple more opportunities for Republican women to make gains.

One race I'll be watching is the runoff between Biggs and Burns in South Carolina's 3rd. Biggs has been endorsed by VIEW PAC, one of the organizations trying to elect more Republican women, but Trump endorsed Burns. This will be a safe Republican race in November, so a Biggs win would likely add a woman to the Republican conference.

In Utah, incumbent Rep. Celeste Maloy faces a serious challenger, even though she has an endorsement from Trump. Her challenger has been endorsed by Sen. Mike Lee, Sen. Rand Paul, Sen. Tommy Tuberville and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramawamy and is painting Maloy as too "D.C."

In Colorado, there are only two Republican women running today, and they are facing off against each other in the 4th Congressional District. Flora has been endorsed by VIEW PAC, but Boebert has the support of Maggie's List, which is another of the GOP groups dedicated to electing more women. This is the second time we've seen two GOP women's groups endorse against each other in primaries thus far. Last week, in South Carolina's 1st, Rep. Nancy Mace was endorsed by VIEW PAC, while Winning for Women supported her challenger, Catherine Templeton. Mace prevailed*.

While Mace and Boebert both had backing from Trump, Boebert is a member of the Freedom Caucus, while Mace is not, which could explain why VIEW PAC backed Mace but not Boebert. In 2022, VIEW PAC endorsed a challenge to Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene in her primary, another female member of the Freedom Caucus.

In Democratic primaries today, EMILYs List, the prominent political action committee formed to elect pro-choice Democratic women, has endorsed just two nonincumbents, both in New York: Goroff in the 1st and Laura Gillen in the 4th. Gillen, a lawyer and former Hempstead Town Supervisor, is unopposed in the primary, and she stands a decent chance of defeating incumbent Republican Rep. Anthony D'Esposito in November.

I'll keep you updated on these candidates and more throughout the night.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor