Pennsylvania primaries 2024: Lee and Fitzpatrick survive, matchups set for November

538 tracked congressional and downballot primary races in the Keystone State.

Pennsylvania is already in the thick of campaign season for November's presidential and U.S. Senate races, but on April 23, Democrats and Republicans in the Keystone State chose their candidates in a slate of other consequential races down the ballot this fall.

Among the key races to watch: a couple of incumbent House members — progressive Democrat Summer Lee and moderate Republican Brian Fitzpatrick — both fended off challengers from their right, and ballots are now set for a few other consequential contests that could help determine control of the House next year. Plus, some key battle lines for control of the state government in November are set, with the parties finalizing their candidates for attorney general, auditor, treasurer and both chambers of the state legislature.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


0

Lee projected to win renomination

ABC News reports that Lee is projected to defeat Patel in the 12th District Democratic primary. She currently leads 59 percent to 41 percent with 73 percent of the expected vote reporting. Lee is the first member of the progressive group of House members known as The Squad to face a primary challenge this cycle, but she's turned back her opposition. She will be easily favored to win in November in a seat that Biden would've carried by 20 points in 2020.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538


Incumbent women face more challengers than incumbent men

As Geoffrey just mentioned, Summer Lee is leading her primary challenger, Bhavini Patel, in the 12th District. Political science research actually finds that incumbent women in Congress are more likely to face challengers than incumbent men. This is due to several factors, such as a history of women's underrepresentation which gives the impression that female incumbents are more vulnerable; this leads to higher quality challengers, too.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor


Mackenzie leading the Republican race for Pennsylvania's 7th

The three Republicans running for the chance to defeat Rep. Susan Wild in Pennsylvania's competitive 7th District are all anti-abortion. With 26 percent of the expected vote in, state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie has a lead with 42 percent of the vote. Mackenzie has told a local news station that the issue is best left to the states because there's no consensus at the federal level. In Pennsylvania, he's voted for a constitutional amendment saying there's no right to taxpayer-funded abortions.

—Monica Potts, 538


Lee's lead grows as votes cast on Election Day are counted

Lee now leads Patel 57 percent to 43 percent in Pennsylvania's 12th District Democratic primary, with 57 percent of the expected vote reporting. Allegheny County has begun reporting votes cast on Election Day (that is, not early or by mail), and Lee is winning about 3 in 4 of those votes so far. That edge may not last, but considering Lee leads 55 percent to 45 percent among the early and mail votes, she doesn't need much to hold her lead. A Patel comeback looks quite unlikely. In fact, Decision Desk HQ projected the race for Lee a few minutes ago. We're still waiting for a projection from ABC, though.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538


Attorney general and other statewide races to watch tonight

One of the most competitive races today could be the Democratic contest for the open state attorney general, where Pennsylvania voters have a full slate of five candidates to pick from. It seems to be anyone's contest here, with each candidate bringing endorsements and support from different Democratic factions to the table.

The fundraising leader in this race is Northeast Philadelphia State Rep. Jared Solomon, a veteran who's emphasized anti-corruption and public safety on the campaign trail and in the state legislature. But his good-government bent hasn't seemed to win him friends in the party — he came in last in balloting for the Democratic Party endorsement (which no candidate ended up winning). The next biggest fundraising numbers came from Delaware County DA Jack Stollseimer and former Bucks County Solicitor Joe Khan, who previously served as a prosecutor in Philadelphia.

But there are two other candidates who may have other advantages in their pockets: The top vote-getter in the inconclusive party endorsement contest was Eugene DePasquale, who likely has a name recognition advantage. A Pittsburgh native, he represented York County as a state rep before winning statewide office as auditor general, and he's the only candidate from Western Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, the most progressive candidate in the race is likely Keir Bradford-Grey, a former chief public defender in both Montgomery County and Philadelphia. She's backed by the progressive Working Families Party and is looking to become the state's first Black AG, and the first AG in the country with a background primarily as a public defender. Her showing could tell us something about Pennsylvania Democrats' mood at a time when progressive prosecutors like Philadelphia DA Larry Krasner have come under increased scrutiny.

Whoever wins will be gearing up for a competitive general election, where they'll face the winner of today's GOP primary between York County DA David Sunday, who has his party's endorsement, and state Rep. Craig Williams, another veteran who represents parts of Chester and Delaware Counties and served as the chamber's impeachment manager against Krasner last year.

Further down the ballot, Democrats are also choosing their candidates today to challenge incumbent Republicans for two other statewide posts. In the Democratic primary for auditor general, the state's top fiscal watchdog, progressive Philadelphia state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta earned the party nod, and is likely favored over Lehigh County Controller Mark Pinsley. For state treasurer, Erie state Rep. Ryan Bizzarro is similarly favored over Pittsburgh-area small business owner Erin McClelland. These races are expected to be highly competitive in November too: They were each decided by just a few percentage points in 2020, and Democrats have set their sights on reversing the results this time around.

—Tia Yang, 538