Pennsylvania primaries 2024: Lee and Fitzpatrick survive, matchups set for November

538 tracked congressional and downballot primary races in the Keystone State.

Pennsylvania is already in the thick of campaign season for November's presidential and U.S. Senate races, but on April 23, Democrats and Republicans in the Keystone State chose their candidates in a slate of other consequential races down the ballot this fall.

Among the key races to watch: a couple of incumbent House members — progressive Democrat Summer Lee and moderate Republican Brian Fitzpatrick — both fended off challengers from their right, and ballots are now set for a few other consequential contests that could help determine control of the House next year. Plus, some key battle lines for control of the state government in November are set, with the parties finalizing their candidates for attorney general, auditor, treasurer and both chambers of the state legislature.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Incumbent women face more challengers than incumbent men

As Geoffrey just mentioned, Summer Lee is leading her primary challenger, Bhavini Patel, in the 12th District. Political science research actually finds that incumbent women in Congress are more likely to face challengers than incumbent men. This is due to several factors, such as a history of women's underrepresentation which gives the impression that female incumbents are more vulnerable; this leads to higher quality challengers, too.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor


Mackenzie leading the Republican race for Pennsylvania's 7th

The three Republicans running for the chance to defeat Rep. Susan Wild in Pennsylvania's competitive 7th District are all anti-abortion. With 26 percent of the expected vote in, state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie has a lead with 42 percent of the vote. Mackenzie has told a local news station that the issue is best left to the states because there's no consensus at the federal level. In Pennsylvania, he's voted for a constitutional amendment saying there's no right to taxpayer-funded abortions.

—Monica Potts, 538


Lee's lead grows as votes cast on Election Day are counted

Lee now leads Patel 57 percent to 43 percent in Pennsylvania's 12th District Democratic primary, with 57 percent of the expected vote reporting. Allegheny County has begun reporting votes cast on Election Day (that is, not early or by mail), and Lee is winning about 3 in 4 of those votes so far. That edge may not last, but considering Lee leads 55 percent to 45 percent among the early and mail votes, she doesn't need much to hold her lead. A Patel comeback looks quite unlikely. In fact, Decision Desk HQ projected the race for Lee a few minutes ago. We're still waiting for a projection from ABC, though.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538


No surprises in the primaries for U.S. Senate

As expected, given that both were unopposed, ABC News has projected that both Republican David McCormick and Democratic Sen. Bob Casey will win their respective primaries and advance to the general election for Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate seat this November. Casey starts out with a slight advantage in both fundraising and the polls, but most analysts are still predicting a tight race.

—Cooper Burton, 538


Candidates of color to watch

We'll be keeping an eye on how candidates of color perform in tonight's House primaries. Racial diversity in Congress has steadily grown over the past two decades, with nonwhite representatives skewing heavily Democratic. In today's races, six candidates of color are running in Democratic primaries compared with four Republican hopefuls.

In the Pittsburgh-area 12th District, Democratic Rep. Summer Lee is seeking a second term after winning a fiercely contested primary by less than 1,000 votes in 2022, when she became the first Black woman to be elected to Congress from Pennsylvania. This year, she faces a primary challenge from Bhavini Patel, an Indian-American small business owner and Edgewood Borough Council member. Patel has aligned herself as a more moderate, pro-Israel foil to Lee, a member of The Squad — a group composed entirely of young progressives of color — who was heavily targeted by AIPAC in her first congressional bid.

Democratic Rep. Dwight Evans, another Black incumbent, is facing a primary challenger in Tracey Gordon, former Philadelphia register of wills. The majority Black, deep-blue 3rd District spans much of central and west Philadelphia, where tonight's winner is all but guaranteed to win the seat in November. The scandal-embroiled Gordon is an underdog candidate here, though she has some experience with that: She defeated a 40-year incumbent in the 2019 primary on the way to becoming the city's register of wills, but lost her reelection bid last May.

A six-way Democratic primary in the 10th District includes Harrisburg City Council member Shamaine Daniels and Blake Lynch, a former local radio executive. Daniels was the Democratic nominee in 2022, but was defeated by Republican Rep. Scott Perry, the former chair of the hard-right House Freedom Caucus. Whoever wins tonight will face Perry in November.

On the Republican side, attorney Maria Montero is one of three Republicans vying to face 7th District Democratic Rep. Susan Wild in what is anticipated to be a highly competitive general election. Entrepreneur Aaron Bashir, former Army chaplain Alfeia Goodwin and business executive James Hayes are each running unopposed in today's Republican primaries in their districts. All three are assured a spot on the ballot in November, but face long odds against Democratic incumbents in solidly blue districts.

—Irena Li, 538