As Geoffrey just mentioned, Summer Lee is leading her primary challenger, Bhavini Patel, in the 12th District. Political science research actually finds that incumbent women in Congress are more likely to face challengers than incumbent men. This is due to several factors, such as a history of women's underrepresentation which gives the impression that female incumbents are more vulnerable; this leads to higher quality challengers, too.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

The three Republicans running for the chance to defeat Rep. Susan Wild in Pennsylvania's competitive 7th District are all anti-abortion. With 26 percent of the expected vote in, state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie has a lead with 42 percent of the vote. Mackenzie has told a local news station that the issue is best left to the states because there's no consensus at the federal level. In Pennsylvania, he's voted for a constitutional amendment saying there's no right to taxpayer-funded abortions.

—Monica Potts, 538

Lee now leads Patel 57 percent to 43 percent in Pennsylvania's 12th District Democratic primary, with 57 percent of the expected vote reporting. Allegheny County has begun reporting votes cast on Election Day (that is, not early or by mail), and Lee is winning about 3 in 4 of those votes so far. That edge may not last, but considering Lee leads 55 percent to 45 percent among the early and mail votes, she doesn't need much to hold her lead. A Patel comeback looks quite unlikely. In fact, Decision Desk HQ projected the race for Lee a few minutes ago. We're still waiting for a projection from ABC, though.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

As expected, given that both were unopposed, ABC News has projected that both Republican David McCormick and Democratic Sen. Bob Casey will win their respective primaries and advance to the general election for Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate seat this November. Casey starts out with a slight advantage in both fundraising and the polls, but most analysts are still predicting a tight race.

—Cooper Burton, 538

In the Pittsburgh-based 12th District, progressive Rep. Summer Lee could be vulnerable against Edgewood Borough Council member Bhavini Patel in the Democratic primary. Two years ago, in her first bid for this seat, Lee only won her primary by less than a point. And Patel's challenge has turned into a referendum on Lee's party bona fides. Behind this is Lee's membership in The Squad, a group of progressive House Democrats who've often been at odds with party leaders. This has been especially apparent in the intraparty debate over the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, most recently demonstrated by The Squad joining with about one-sixth of House Democrats in voting against foreign aid to Israel.

Lee's critics have often portrayed her as more dogmatic than pragmatic, a theme Patel's campaign has played up by arguing that Lee wants to undermine Biden and the Democratic Party. She has run ads attacking Lee for opposing the Biden administration and criticized Lee's support for the "uncommitted" movement in the presidential primary that wants Biden to adopt a less pro-Israel stance. Lee has countered by emphasizing her ability to bring federal investment to the district and her pro-choice record. Her campaign has also criticized "Republican-funded super PACs" for meddling — a reference to Patel's backing from Moderate PAC, a group mostly funded by a GOP donor, and the potential influence of the bipartisan American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which has said it might spend $100 million against progressives this cycle.

Heading into the primary, Lee probably has the upper hand. We have no polls, but Lee had outraised Patel nearly 4-to-1 ($2.3 million to $602,000) as of April 3. Meanwhile, outside spending has run about even, according to OpenSecrets. Surprisingly, though, AIPAC's super PAC has not spent money against Lee despite investing $3.9 million to stop her in the 2022 primary. That may mean that AIPAC thinks Patel can't win, that she already has sufficient support and/or that support associated with AIPAC could harm Patel more than help her.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538