There isn’t currently a legal challenge pending against Wisconsin’s congressional map, but many people expect that the Badger State will have to redraw its lines sometime in the next few years. Why? Because with the election of Justice Janet Protasiewicz in 2023, control of the Wisconsin Supreme Court flipped from conservatives to liberals, making the court much more receptive to claims of partisan gerrymandering.

During her 2023 campaign, Protasiewicz called Wisconsin’s electoral maps “rigged,” and if the Wisconsin Supreme Court were to hear a challenge to the congressional map, she would likely join the court’s three other liberal justices in striking it down. Wisconsin’s congressional delegation currently consists of six Republicans and two Democrats, despite Biden winning the state 49.4 percent to 48.8 percent in 2020. A fairer map would likely result in Democrats picking up at least one seat.

Republicans in the legislature are already mobilizing against such an outcome. They have demanded that Protasiewicz recuse herself from any lawsuits over the map, threatening her with impeachment if she does not. Republicans have also proposed a compromise where an advisory redistricting commission would draw a new map, but the Republican-controlled legislature would still retain the final power to pass (or not pass) it.

On Thursday, the lower federal court overseeing Alabama’s redistricting litigation chose a remedial congressional map that the state will use in the 2024 election — and probably beyond. Under the new lines, the 2nd District’s population will have a voting-age population that is about 49 percent Black. Alabama has deeply polarized voting patterns by race — white voters vote solidly Republican and Black voters overwhelmingly Democratic — so the new 2nd District would have backed President Biden by about 12 percentage points in 2020. As a result, the new map is likely to result in the election of a second Democrat from Alabama.

The court had previously rejected the lines that Alabama used in the 2022 election, which had one majority-Black and heavily Democratic seat and six majority-white and solidly Republican seats. In its ruling, the court said the map likely violated Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act by diluting the influence of Black voters. Alabama appealed the case to the Supreme Court, but the high court ruled against the state in June, which compelled Alabama to draw a new map. The state legislature came up with new lines, but the lower federal court also struck down that map, which did not create a second district with a majority-Black (or nearly majority) population. In response, the lower federal court ordered a special master to draw remedial map options, from which the court selected the final new district lines.

With a new map, incumbents and prospective candidates will start making decisions about their electoral futures. Beyond the new 2nd District, the map also may precipitate a member-versus-member primary between Republican Reps. Jerry Carl (of the current 1st District) and Barry Moore (current 2nd District) in the new, deep-red 1st District. Carl, who presently represents more of the new district, looks set to seek reelection, while Moore has said he’s leaning toward a run as well.