On Wednesday, the North Carolina state House passed a new congressional map for the Tar Heel State. Since the map had already passed the state Senate on Tuesday, it is now law. (In North Carolina, the governor has no veto power over redistricting.)

The map is an amended version of Proposal CCJ-1, the less aggressively gerrymandered of the two proposals unveiled by Republicans last week. But it is still heavily skewed toward the GOP: It creates 10 reliably Republican seats, three reliably Democratic seats and one competitive seat in a state that former President Donald Trump carried just 50 percent to 49 percent in 2020. Democratic Reps. Kathy Manning, Wiley Nickel and Jeff Jackson have now been placed in reliably red seats, meaning Republicans will almost certainly pick up three House seats as a result of this map. They could even flip a fourth, Democratic Rep. Don Davis’s 1st District, which this map makes more competitive.

Democrats will very probably sue over the new map, but they may not have much luck. Both the U.S. Supreme Court and, more recently, the North Carolina Supreme Court have said that they will not consider partisan gerrymandering claims. If the map is going to be struck down, advocates will have to prove it is a racial gerrymander.

On Wednesday, North Carolina Republicans released two proposed congressional maps for the 2024 cycle, both of which strongly favor the GOP and would allow the party to flip three or four House seats from Democrats.

North Carolina’s congressional delegation currently consists of seven Republicans and seven Democrats, but the first proposed map creates 10 reliably Republican seats, three reliably Democratic seats and one competitive seat. The second proposal is even more aggressive, creating 11 Republican-leaning districts and three Democratic-leaning ones.

Both maps would likely doom the reelection chances of Democratic Reps. Kathy Manning, Wiley Nickel and Jeff Jackson. The first proposal would also make it harder, though not impossible, for Democratic Rep. Don Davis to win reelection, moving his district from one that voted for President Biden by 7 percentage points to one that voted for Biden by just 2. The second proposal would merge Davis and Democratic Rep. Valerie Foushee into the same safely Democratic seat (the 1st District), so one of them would have to retire or lose in a primary.

The North Carolina legislature will discuss these proposals in committee on Thursday, but it’s unclear when they will be voted upon or which plan (if either) will eventually be enacted. In North Carolina, the governor does not have veto power over redistricting maps, so the Republican-controlled Senate and House will have free rein to pass whichever map they can agree on. Democrats may sue over the eventual map, however, especially if the legislature picks the more aggressive proposal. That map dilutes the share of the Black voting age population in the 1st District from 41 percent to 39 percent and could be vulnerable to a legal challenge under the Voting Rights Act.

On Thursday, the lower federal court overseeing Alabama’s redistricting litigation chose a remedial congressional map that the state will use in the 2024 election — and probably beyond. Under the new lines, the 2nd District’s population will have a voting-age population that is about 49 percent Black. Alabama has deeply polarized voting patterns by race — white voters vote solidly Republican and Black voters overwhelmingly Democratic — so the new 2nd District would have backed President Biden by about 12 percentage points in 2020. As a result, the new map is likely to result in the election of a second Democrat from Alabama.

The court had previously rejected the lines that Alabama used in the 2022 election, which had one majority-Black and heavily Democratic seat and six majority-white and solidly Republican seats. In its ruling, the court said the map likely violated Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act by diluting the influence of Black voters. Alabama appealed the case to the Supreme Court, but the high court ruled against the state in June, which compelled Alabama to draw a new map. The state legislature came up with new lines, but the lower federal court also struck down that map, which did not create a second district with a majority-Black (or nearly majority) population. In response, the lower federal court ordered a special master to draw remedial map options, from which the court selected the final new district lines.

With a new map, incumbents and prospective candidates will start making decisions about their electoral futures. Beyond the new 2nd District, the map also may precipitate a member-versus-member primary between Republican Reps. Jerry Carl (of the current 1st District) and Barry Moore (current 2nd District) in the new, deep-red 1st District. Carl, who presently represents more of the new district, looks set to seek reelection, while Moore has said he’s leaning toward a run as well.

Alabama is furthest along in terms of having a new congressional map for 2024. Back in 2021, the Republican-controlled legislature drew Alabama a congressional map that had six majority-white seats and one majority-Black seat — despite it being possible to draw a map with two majority-Black districts. Voting-rights advocates sued, and in January 2022, a federal court agreed that the map discriminated against Black voters and had to be redrawn.

Alabama appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, but in June 2023, the court handed down a landmark decision that upheld the Voting Rights Act and confirmed that Alabama had to redraw its map. In July, the legislature did so — but the new map still didn’t have a second majority-Black seat. The lower court quickly struck down that map too, and the Supreme Court rejected a Hail Mary appeal of that decision.

The lower court will now choose a new congressional map for Alabama, to be used in 2024. A court-appointed special master has drawn three possible options, all of which would create a second majority-Black seat. And because Black voters so consistently vote Democratic, in partisan terms, that means Democrats will almost certainly pick up a House seat in Alabama next year. In the three proposals, the new 2nd District would have voted for President Biden by anywhere from 10 to 13 percentage points.

Last week, Louisiana's state legislature passed a new congressional map, which Republican Gov. Jeff Landry signed into law on Monday. A federal court had previously ruled that the state's map violated the Voting Rights Act by diluting Black representation. To avoid further litigation or even a court-drawn map, Louisiana's Republican-controlled government implemented a second majority-Black seat — the 6th District — that stretches diagonally southeast from Shreveport in the northwest to Baton Rouge in south-central Louisiana. Along with the New Orleans-based 2nd District, Louisiana now has two majority-Black, Democratic-leaning seats: President Joe Biden would have carried the new 6th by 20 percentage points in 2020, while the 2nd would have been Biden +36. As a result, Louisiana's six-member U.S. House delegation will likely go from 5-1 Republican to 4-2 Republican after the 2024 election.

The final map had Landry's endorsement, and the new lines mainly endanger the political future of Republican Rep. Garret Graves, who represents the current 6th District. Graves alienated some fellow Louisiana Republicans last fall — including Landry himself — by supporting one of Landry's GOP opponents in Louisiana's gubernatorial election and by not publicly backing U.S. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise's bid for the speakership. To create a second majority-Black seat, Louisiana Republicans chose to dismantle Graves's seat instead of the 5th District held by GOP Rep. Julia Letlow, whom many Republican legislators wanted to protect as the state's only woman in Congress.

Looking ahead, however, there are three outstanding questions: What will Graves do, will the new map survive legal scrutiny and which Democrat might represent the new 6th District?

Graves has said he will run again, but he's unlikely to run in a Democratic-leaning seat, so he may instead challenge Letlow in the new 5th District. Graves currently represents 43 percent of the redrawn district, while Letlow represents the rest, based on an analysis by Daily Kos Elections. But the Republican vote may be even more closely-divided: Letlow currently represents about 51 percent of 2020 Trump voters in the new seat versus Graves's 49 percent. Democrats will have a chance to weigh in, too, under the state's "jungle primary" format, in which all candidates regardless of party run on the November election day, and if a candidate wins a majority, that person wins; otherwise, there's a runoff between the top-two vote-getters. This won't be the setup beyond 2024, though: A new law will establish closed party primaries for congressional elections starting in 2026.

However, Graves also believes that the courts will rule against the new map — and he may have reason to hope. The federal court that ruled against the current map will review the new lines, and Graves has argued the new map ignored many communities of interest in its pursuit of a Black majority. This could be important: Back in the 1990s, federal courts twice deemed Louisiana's congressional map an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, forcing redraws before the 1994 election and again before the 1996 election. The second time was due to a similar "backslash" district that ran from Shreveport to Baton Rouge. This time around, it was possible to draw a more compact majority-Black seat running north from Baton Rouge up the Mississippi River to the state's northeast. However, that would've meant dismantling Letlow's 5th District, which Republicans didn't want to do.

But if the new map remains in place, the new 6th District is likely to elect a Democrat. And one leading possibility is a familiar name: Democratic state Sen. Cleo Fields, who announced his candidacy on Tuesday. Fields has a direct connection back to Louisiana's redistricting episodes in the 1990s. At the age of 29, Fields won a Z-shaped majority-Black seat in 1992 drawn to connect Baton Rouge and Shreveport, then won the redrawn "backslash" seat in 1994 before losing Louisiana's 1995 gubernatorial election (Fields didn't seek reelection in 1996 after the second redraw put him in a Republican-leaning, majority-white seat). Fields has become a cross-party Landry ally in the state legislature, which might help explain why Landry supported a congressional map that could be tailor-made for Fields. Still, the district will probably attract a few Democratic aspirants.