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Which states could get new congressional maps in 2024?
An updating tracker of developments in midcycle redistricting.
After the 2020 census, each state redrew its congressional district lines (if it had more than one seat) and its state legislative districts. 538 closely tracked how redistricting played out across the country ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. So everything is done and dusted, right?
Not so fast, my friend. More than a half-dozen states face the prospect of having to go through the redistricting process again, mostly due to federal and/or state litigation over racial or partisan gerrymandering concerns. Both Democrats and Republicans have the opportunity to flip seats in districts drawn more favorably than they were last cycle. For example, Democrats appear poised to pick up at least one seat in Alabama and could theoretically get more favorable maps in Louisiana and Georgia. Republicans, meanwhile, could benefit from more favorable 2024 maps in North Carolina and New Mexico.
We’ll be using this page to relay major developments in midcycle redistricting, such as new court rulings and district maps, and examine how they could affect the political landscape as we move deeper into the 2024 election cycle. We’ll predominantly focus on congressional maps, but will share the occasional key update on conflicts over state legislative districts.
Some key states to watch:
North Carolina has a new congressional map
On Wednesday, the North Carolina state House passed a new congressional map for the Tar Heel State. Since the map had already passed the state Senate on Tuesday, it is now law. (In North Carolina, the governor has no veto power over redistricting.)
The map is an amended version of Proposal CCJ-1, the less aggressively gerrymandered of the two proposals unveiled by Republicans last week. But it is still heavily skewed toward the GOP: It creates 10 reliably Republican seats, three reliably Democratic seats and one competitive seat in a state that former President Donald Trump carried just 50 percent to 49 percent in 2020. Democratic Reps. Kathy Manning, Wiley Nickel and Jeff Jackson have now been placed in reliably red seats, meaning Republicans will almost certainly pick up three House seats as a result of this map. They could even flip a fourth, Democratic Rep. Don Davis’s 1st District, which this map makes more competitive.
Democrats will very probably sue over the new map, but they may not have much luck. Both the U.S. Supreme Court and, more recently, the North Carolina Supreme Court have said that they will not consider partisan gerrymandering claims. If the map is going to be struck down, advocates will have to prove it is a racial gerrymander.
Analyzing North Carolina’s proposed congressional maps
On Wednesday, North Carolina Republicans released two proposed congressional maps for the 2024 cycle, both of which strongly favor the GOP and would allow the party to flip three or four House seats from Democrats.
North Carolina’s congressional delegation currently consists of seven Republicans and seven Democrats, but the first proposed map creates 10 reliably Republican seats, three reliably Democratic seats and one competitive seat. The second proposal is even more aggressive, creating 11 Republican-leaning districts and three Democratic-leaning ones.
Both maps would likely doom the reelection chances of Democratic Reps. Kathy Manning, Wiley Nickel and Jeff Jackson. The first proposal would also make it harder, though not impossible, for Democratic Rep. Don Davis to win reelection, moving his district from one that voted for President Biden by 7 percentage points to one that voted for Biden by just 2. The second proposal would merge Davis and Democratic Rep. Valerie Foushee into the same safely Democratic seat (the 1st District), so one of them would have to retire or lose in a primary.
The North Carolina legislature will discuss these proposals in committee on Thursday, but it’s unclear when they will be voted upon or which plan (if either) will eventually be enacted. In North Carolina, the governor does not have veto power over redistricting maps, so the Republican-controlled Senate and House will have free rein to pass whichever map they can agree on. Democrats may sue over the eventual map, however, especially if the legislature picks the more aggressive proposal. That map dilutes the share of the Black voting age population in the 1st District from 41 percent to 39 percent and could be vulnerable to a legal challenge under the Voting Rights Act.
Alabama gets a new congressional map
On Thursday, the lower federal court overseeing Alabama’s redistricting litigation chose a remedial congressional map that the state will use in the 2024 election — and probably beyond. Under the new lines, the 2nd District’s population will have a voting-age population that is about 49 percent Black. Alabama has deeply polarized voting patterns by race — white voters vote solidly Republican and Black voters overwhelmingly Democratic — so the new 2nd District would have backed President Biden by about 12 percentage points in 2020. As a result, the new map is likely to result in the election of a second Democrat from Alabama.
The court had previously rejected the lines that Alabama used in the 2022 election, which had one majority-Black and heavily Democratic seat and six majority-white and solidly Republican seats. In its ruling, the court said the map likely violated Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act by diluting the influence of Black voters. Alabama appealed the case to the Supreme Court, but the high court ruled against the state in June, which compelled Alabama to draw a new map. The state legislature came up with new lines, but the lower federal court also struck down that map, which did not create a second district with a majority-Black (or nearly majority) population. In response, the lower federal court ordered a special master to draw remedial map options, from which the court selected the final new district lines.
With a new map, incumbents and prospective candidates will start making decisions about their electoral futures. Beyond the new 2nd District, the map also may precipitate a member-versus-member primary between Republican Reps. Jerry Carl (of the current 1st District) and Barry Moore (current 2nd District) in the new, deep-red 1st District. Carl, who presently represents more of the new district, looks set to seek reelection, while Moore has said he’s leaning toward a run as well.
Where things stand in Alabama
Alabama is furthest along in terms of having a new congressional map for 2024. Back in 2021, the Republican-controlled legislature drew Alabama a congressional map that had six majority-white seats and one majority-Black seat — despite it being possible to draw a map with two majority-Black districts. Voting-rights advocates sued, and in January 2022, a federal court agreed that the map discriminated against Black voters and had to be redrawn.
Alabama appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, but in June 2023, the court handed down a landmark decision that upheld the Voting Rights Act and confirmed that Alabama had to redraw its map. In July, the legislature did so — but the new map still didn’t have a second majority-Black seat. The lower court quickly struck down that map too, and the Supreme Court rejected a Hail Mary appeal of that decision.
The lower court will now choose a new congressional map for Alabama, to be used in 2024. A court-appointed special master has drawn three possible options, all of which would create a second majority-Black seat. And because Black voters so consistently vote Democratic, in partisan terms, that means Democrats will almost certainly pick up a House seat in Alabama next year. In the three proposals, the new 2nd District would have voted for President Biden by anywhere from 10 to 13 percentage points.
Wisconsin’s legislature is competitive again
We've largely stuck to covering congressional redistricting in this space, but over the weekend there was a pretty huge development in state-legislative redistricting that's worth noting. Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers signed a new set of state Senate and Assembly maps into law that will suddenly make Wisconsin's legislature — which has been dominated by Republicans for over a decade — competitive again.
Back in December, the state Supreme Court ruled that Wisconsin's old legislative maps were unconstitutional because they were not contiguous. The court asked Evers and the legislature to enact a new map, or else it would pick one for them. Normally, the Democratic Evers and the Republican legislature don't see eye to eye on anything, but when Evers's proposed maps turned out to be slightly better for Republicans than the other maps the court was considering, Republican legislators begrudgingly voted to pass them. (Ironically, most Democrats in the legislature voted against them.)
Still, the new maps are dramatically better for Democrats than the old ones. Under the old Assembly map, Trump carried 64 districts in 2020 and Biden carried 35. Under the new map, Trump would have carried 50 districts and Biden 49. And under the old Senate map, Trump carried 22 districts to Biden's 11. Under the new map, Biden would have carried 18 districts over Trump's 15.
All districts in the Assembly will be on the ballot this fall, giving Democrats a real chance to win control of the chamber for the first time since 2008. However, Republicans will remain strong favorites in the Senate because only half of the seats there (the even-numbered ones) will be up for election. The senators who aren't up for reelection include 12 Republicans and five Democrats, so Republicans need to win only five seats this fall to secure another majority in the 33-person chamber. That should be no sweat considering that there are elections this fall in six Senate districts that Trump would have carried by at least 10 points.