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Which states could get new congressional maps in 2024?
An updating tracker of developments in midcycle redistricting.
After the 2020 census, each state redrew its congressional district lines (if it had more than one seat) and its state legislative districts. 538 closely tracked how redistricting played out across the country ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. So everything is done and dusted, right?
Not so fast, my friend. More than a half-dozen states face the prospect of having to go through the redistricting process again, mostly due to federal and/or state litigation over racial or partisan gerrymandering concerns. Both Democrats and Republicans have the opportunity to flip seats in districts drawn more favorably than they were last cycle. For example, Democrats appear poised to pick up at least one seat in Alabama and could theoretically get more favorable maps in Louisiana and Georgia. Republicans, meanwhile, could benefit from more favorable 2024 maps in North Carolina and New Mexico.
We’ll be using this page to relay major developments in midcycle redistricting, such as new court rulings and district maps, and examine how they could affect the political landscape as we move deeper into the 2024 election cycle. We’ll predominantly focus on congressional maps, but will share the occasional key update on conflicts over state legislative districts.
Some key states to watch:
Where things stand in Wisconsin
There isn’t currently a legal challenge pending against Wisconsin’s congressional map, but many people expect that the Badger State will have to redraw its lines sometime in the next few years. Why? Because with the election of Justice Janet Protasiewicz in 2023, control of the Wisconsin Supreme Court flipped from conservatives to liberals, making the court much more receptive to claims of partisan gerrymandering.
During her 2023 campaign, Protasiewicz called Wisconsin’s electoral maps “rigged,” and if the Wisconsin Supreme Court were to hear a challenge to the congressional map, she would likely join the court’s three other liberal justices in striking it down. Wisconsin’s congressional delegation currently consists of six Republicans and two Democrats, despite Biden winning the state 49.4 percent to 48.8 percent in 2020. A fairer map would likely result in Democrats picking up at least one seat.
Republicans in the legislature are already mobilizing against such an outcome. They have demanded that Protasiewicz recuse herself from any lawsuits over the map, threatening her with impeachment if she does not. Republicans have also proposed a compromise where an advisory redistricting commission would draw a new map, but the Republican-controlled legislature would still retain the final power to pass (or not pass) it.
Wisconsin’s legislature is competitive again
We've largely stuck to covering congressional redistricting in this space, but over the weekend there was a pretty huge development in state-legislative redistricting that's worth noting. Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers signed a new set of state Senate and Assembly maps into law that will suddenly make Wisconsin's legislature — which has been dominated by Republicans for over a decade — competitive again.
Back in December, the state Supreme Court ruled that Wisconsin's old legislative maps were unconstitutional because they were not contiguous. The court asked Evers and the legislature to enact a new map, or else it would pick one for them. Normally, the Democratic Evers and the Republican legislature don't see eye to eye on anything, but when Evers's proposed maps turned out to be slightly better for Republicans than the other maps the court was considering, Republican legislators begrudgingly voted to pass them. (Ironically, most Democrats in the legislature voted against them.)
Still, the new maps are dramatically better for Democrats than the old ones. Under the old Assembly map, Trump carried 64 districts in 2020 and Biden carried 35. Under the new map, Trump would have carried 50 districts and Biden 49. And under the old Senate map, Trump carried 22 districts to Biden's 11. Under the new map, Biden would have carried 18 districts over Trump's 15.
All districts in the Assembly will be on the ballot this fall, giving Democrats a real chance to win control of the chamber for the first time since 2008. However, Republicans will remain strong favorites in the Senate because only half of the seats there (the even-numbered ones) will be up for election. The senators who aren't up for reelection include 12 Republicans and five Democrats, so Republicans need to win only five seats this fall to secure another majority in the 33-person chamber. That should be no sweat considering that there are elections this fall in six Senate districts that Trump would have carried by at least 10 points.