After last month’s debate, we declared Haley as a big debate winner, according to our previous poll with The Washington Post and Ipsos. When likely Republican primary voters who watched the debate were asked whether they’d consider voting for each candidate, Haley jumped from 30 percent before the debate to 47 percent after. Overall, participation in the debate was beneficial for candidates, and absence from the debate was (at least marginally) detrimental.

We’ll be following up with the same group as our pre-debate poll to see how participants performed and what respondents' views on all of the candidates are. Check back in with 538 tomorrow afternoon for our post-debate analysis.

—Analysis by Holly Fuong of 538

DeSantis gets another chance to be the adult in the room by rejecting the premise of that moderator question. He did the same thing in the first debate when the moderators asked candidates to raise their hands if they believed in man-made climate change.
-Jacob Rubashkin, 538 contributor

Moderator Dana Perino asked every candidate to write down which challenger they would “vote off the island.” DeSantis refused, prompting Perino to rework her approach, asking for his mathematical approach to winning the nomination — and of course, that’s not going to work with a politician. Christie, however, interjected that he’d be just fine voting Trump off the island.
-- Analysis by Leah Askarinam of 538

DeSantis claimed that his 1.5 million-vote victory was the largest in a Florida gubernatorial election in state history. Now, his nearly-20 percentage point margin of victory was quite large in what has historically been a swing state. But it's quite misleading to use the raw vote margin since population has changed quite a bit over time! This is especially true in a state like Florida, which has grown by leaps and bounds. For instance, a candidate would've had a tougher time winning by 1.5 million votes in 1990, when the state had a population of about 13 million, than in 2022, when the state had a population of about 22 million.

— Analysis by Geoffrey Skelley of 538

Trump maintains a lead of 27 percentage points over Haley, his nearest competitor in South Carolina, according to polls conducted since the first debate. Haley’s average support has grown by 9 points since the first debate, while DeSantis and Scott have fallen.

According to a September survey from Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research/Fox Business, 69 percent of likely South Carolina Republican primary voters say they support their first-choice candidate strongly, while 28 percent say they support them only somewhat. Among those that list Trump as their first choice, 86 percent say they support him strongly, while the second-place candidate, Haley, has only 57 percent saying the same.

In a September survey by Monmouth University/The Washington Post, South Carolina primary voters are split on whether the Republican Party should nominate a candidate who agrees with them on major issues (51 percent) or one who can beat Biden (45 percent). Among voters who say they are very or somewhat conservative, selecting a candidate who can beat Joe Biden is more important by a margin of 7 and 11 percentage points, respectively. Voters who say they are moderate or liberal prefer a candidate who agrees with them on major issues by 31 percentage points.

—Analysis by 538