South Carolina, Nevada, North Dakota primaries and Ohio special election 2024: Nancy Mace, Sam Brown win
Democrats nearly won a safely Republican congressional seat.
June 11 was another packed primary day, as voters in South Carolina, Maine, North Dakota and Nevada weighed in on who will make the ballot this fall. We had our eyes on a slew of Republican primaries on Tuesday, including several competitive contests for U.S. House seats, as well as contests to pick Nevada's GOP Senate nominee and effectively pick the next governor of North Dakota.
In South Carolina, Rep. Nancy Mace's Trumpian pivot didn't cost her, as she handily fended off an establishment-aligned primary challenger. Fellow incumbent Rep. William Timmons, who was looking vulnerable after an infidelity scandal, also came out ahead in a closer race against his right-wing challenger. In North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District, Julie Fedorchak became the first non-incumbent woman this cycle to win a GOP primary for a safely red seat. In Nevada, Republican voters chose Sam Brown as their candidate to challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen this fall.
Finally, a special election is set to give House Republicans one more seat of breathing room, as voters in Ohio's 6th District filled the seat vacated by Rep. Bill Johnson's departure in January — though not without some unexpected suspense.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Heading for a rematch in Nevada's 1st?
In Nevada's 1st District, 64 percent of the expected vote is counted already, and Robertson leads Larsen 49 percent to 38 percent for the right to take on Titus. As you might recall, Robertson was the GOP's nominee here in 2022 as well.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Finally, votes in Nevada!
We finally have a bunch of votes in Nevada! It was our snarky comments that did it, I'm sure.
According to the AP, 57 percent of the expected vote is already reporting in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate. As expected, Brown is crushing Gunter 57 percent to 17 percent.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Which will come first ...
Results from Nevada or the A's actually moving to Vegas?
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
Women we're watching tonight: Will Fedorchak be the first non-incumbent woman nominated in a safe red seat?
According to our recent analysis of primaries this cycle through May 21, 41 percent of Democrats' nominees (that is, primary winners) for House, Senate and governor are women, compared to just 16 percent of Republicans'. That's a big difference. To date, no non-incumbent Republican women have won a nomination for a safe Republican seat in November — and there were certainly plenty of opportunities, given a high number of GOP (and overall) retirements this year. In short, Democrats are nominating many more women than Republicans thus far, and doing so in places where their chances are better in November.
Tonight there is at least one Republican woman with a good shot at bucking that trend and effectively claiming a safe red seat in November: North Dakota Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak, who's running for the state's open at-large House seat. In addition to endorsements from several of the women's groups we're tracking (E-PAC, VIEW PAC and Winning for Women), she has Trump's endorsement, too.
Another Republican primary of note features two women, and GOP women's groups, going head-to-head: In South Carolina's 1st District, incumbent Rep. Nancy Mace faces several challengers, but her most notable opponent is former state cabinet official Catherine Templeton. Templeton is endorsed by Winning for Women, while Mace is endorsed by VIEW PAC (and notably, Trump). It's the first race we've seen so far in this season where two of the women's groups we're tracking are actively endorsing against each other.
On the Democratic side, three incumbent Democratic women in Nevada — Sen. Jacky Rosen, Rep. Susie Lee and Rep. Dina Titus — should cruise to victory with no serious competition in their primaries today, but they'll be watching today's GOP primaries to see which Republicans they'll face in November, when their races could be close, as Geoffrey wrote in 538's primary preview.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor