South Carolina, Nevada, North Dakota primaries and Ohio special election 2024: Nancy Mace, Sam Brown win
Democrats nearly won a safely Republican congressional seat.
June 11 was another packed primary day, as voters in South Carolina, Maine, North Dakota and Nevada weighed in on who will make the ballot this fall. We had our eyes on a slew of Republican primaries on Tuesday, including several competitive contests for U.S. House seats, as well as contests to pick Nevada's GOP Senate nominee and effectively pick the next governor of North Dakota.
In South Carolina, Rep. Nancy Mace's Trumpian pivot didn't cost her, as she handily fended off an establishment-aligned primary challenger. Fellow incumbent Rep. William Timmons, who was looking vulnerable after an infidelity scandal, also came out ahead in a closer race against his right-wing challenger. In North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District, Julie Fedorchak became the first non-incumbent woman this cycle to win a GOP primary for a safely red seat. In Nevada, Republican voters chose Sam Brown as their candidate to challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen this fall.
Finally, a special election is set to give House Republicans one more seat of breathing room, as voters in Ohio's 6th District filled the seat vacated by Rep. Bill Johnson's departure in January — though not without some unexpected suspense.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
The GOP will choose between old and new faces in Nevada's 1st District
We're also monitoring the GOP primary in the 1st District, a light-blue seat in and around Las Vegas held by Democratic Rep. Dina Titus. In the 2022 general election, Titus defeated Army veteran Mark Robertson by nearly 6 percentage points, but Robertson is back for another go. However, he's only raised $106,000, a figure dwarfed by restaurateur Flemming Larsen, a GOP rival who has brought in a whopping $1.8 million thanks to $1.5 million in self-funding. It's unclear if a recent report by the Nevada Independent disclosing that Larsen hired undocumented immigrants at his southern California restaurants will notably impact the race.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
A huge overperformance for Democrats in Ohio
The AP now estimates that virtually all of the vote is counted in Ohio's 6th District, and the final-ish margin is Rulli 55 percent, Kripchak 45 percent. According to a weighted average of presidential results in this district, this is an R+32 district, which means Democrats overperformed here by a whopping 22 points.
Obviously, that's a very impressive performance by Democrats. However, one special election on its own doesn't necessarily mean anything. That said, the average of a party's overperformance in special elections for the cycle has historically been correlated with its performance in the subsequent general election, and that's good news for Democrats. On average this cycle, they have now overperformed in federal special elections by an average of 7 points — not Ohio 6th-level, but still quite solid.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Polls have closed in Nevada
It's 10 p.m. Eastern, and polls are now closed in the Silver State, our last primary state of the evening. Nevada law says that the state can't report results until the last voter in line has voted, so we may not see results right away. (But once we do, it will likely be a big chunk of the final tally.)
—Tia Yang, 538
Republicans will pick their nominee in Nevada's 4th District
In another race mostly situated in the Las Vegas area, Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford will be defending the blue-leaning 4th District, and the two principal GOP contenders are retired Air Force Lt. Col. David Flippo and former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee. Flippo has raised $927,000 to Lee's $851,000 — both candidates have self-funded more than half of their totals — but Lee may have the upper hand here, thanks to endorsements from Trump and Lombardo. However, Lee is a former Democrat who switched parties ahead of a failed bid for the Republican nomination for governor against Lombardo in 2022, which could weaken his appeal among primary voters.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
Women we're watching tonight: Will Fedorchak be the first non-incumbent woman nominated in a safe red seat?
According to our recent analysis of primaries this cycle through May 21, 41 percent of Democrats' nominees (that is, primary winners) for House, Senate and governor are women, compared to just 16 percent of Republicans'. That's a big difference. To date, no non-incumbent Republican women have won a nomination for a safe Republican seat in November — and there were certainly plenty of opportunities, given a high number of GOP (and overall) retirements this year. In short, Democrats are nominating many more women than Republicans thus far, and doing so in places where their chances are better in November.
Tonight there is at least one Republican woman with a good shot at bucking that trend and effectively claiming a safe red seat in November: North Dakota Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak, who's running for the state's open at-large House seat. In addition to endorsements from several of the women's groups we're tracking (E-PAC, VIEW PAC and Winning for Women), she has Trump's endorsement, too.
Another Republican primary of note features two women, and GOP women's groups, going head-to-head: In South Carolina's 1st District, incumbent Rep. Nancy Mace faces several challengers, but her most notable opponent is former state cabinet official Catherine Templeton. Templeton is endorsed by Winning for Women, while Mace is endorsed by VIEW PAC (and notably, Trump). It's the first race we've seen so far in this season where two of the women's groups we're tracking are actively endorsing against each other.
On the Democratic side, three incumbent Democratic women in Nevada — Sen. Jacky Rosen, Rep. Susie Lee and Rep. Dina Titus — should cruise to victory with no serious competition in their primaries today, but they'll be watching today's GOP primaries to see which Republicans they'll face in November, when their races could be close, as Geoffrey wrote in 538's primary preview.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor