Only about 17 percent of the expected vote is in for North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District Republican primary, but the Trump- and Burgum-endorsed Fedorchak has opened up an early lead with about 44 percent of the vote so far, according to the AP compared to Becker's 31 percent. As Geoffrey noted in his race preview, a third candidate, Balasz, technically has the endorsement of the state GOP due to a rebellion by Becker supporters upset that he was ineligible for endorsement; Balasz only has about 5 percent of the vote so far.

—Monica Potts, 538

As Kyle Kondik of Sabato’s Crystal Ball points out on X, "No district in the entire country moved further toward the Rs at the presidential level from 2008 to 2020 than OH-6." That could explain why Democrats overperformed by so much here — the district has some muscle memory of voting for Democrats. I'm reminded of the Pennsylvania 18th special election in 2018, which was shockingly won by Democrat Conor Lamb. That was a Trump+20 seat, but it was an ancestrally Democratic district — in fact, there were still more registered Democrats than registered Republicans in the district at the time.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Monica mentioned earlier that Mace's position on abortion may stand out among GOP candidates, but it actually puts her in line with much of her state's electorate. According to the May Winthrop University poll I mentioned earlier, 81 percent of South Carolinians support legal abortion if a pregnancy is a result of rape, while just 9 percent oppose it. Voters also supported legal abortion in the case that a "pregnancy threatens the woman's life or health" by a margin of 84 to 5. The pollsters didn't ask about incest, but I suspect the numbers would be similar.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

With 65 percent of the expected vote counted in Ohio’s 6th, per the AP, Rulli has now taken the lead, 52 percent to 48 percent. And somewhat surprisingly, the AP has also projected the race for Rulli, no doubt because they expect the remaining votes — which were mostly cast on election day — to favor him.

However, the county-level results here are very unusual, with some of them exhibiting the kind of Democratic overperformance that, if replicated districtwide, would have led to a Kripchak win. For example, the AP estimates that virtually all the votes are counted in Washington County, and Rulli leads there by just 6 points. In 2020, Trump won Washington County by 41 points! And Kripchak actually won the 6th District portion of Tuscarawas County, which Trump carried by 33 points, by 12 points!

It's always possible that these county-level swings won't replicate districtwide — indeed, that's what the AP is predicting based on their projection. But regardless of the final outcome, it's clear that Kripchak did shockingly well for a Democrat in Ohio’s 6th.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

According to our recent analysis of primaries this cycle through May 21, 41 percent of Democrats' nominees (that is, primary winners) for House, Senate and governor are women, compared to just 16 percent of Republicans'. That's a big difference. To date, no non-incumbent Republican women have won a nomination for a safe Republican seat in November — and there were certainly plenty of opportunities, given a high number of GOP (and overall) retirements this year. In short, Democrats are nominating many more women than Republicans thus far, and doing so in places where their chances are better in November.

Tonight there is at least one Republican woman with a good shot at bucking that trend and effectively claiming a safe red seat in November: North Dakota Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak, who's running for the state's open at-large House seat. In addition to endorsements from several of the women's groups we're tracking (E-PAC, VIEW PAC and Winning for Women), she has Trump's endorsement, too.

Another Republican primary of note features two women, and GOP women's groups, going head-to-head: In South Carolina's 1st District, incumbent Rep. Nancy Mace faces several challengers, but her most notable opponent is former state cabinet official Catherine Templeton. Templeton is endorsed by Winning for Women, while Mace is endorsed by VIEW PAC (and notably, Trump). It's the first race we've seen so far in this season where two of the women's groups we're tracking are actively endorsing against each other.

On the Democratic side, three incumbent Democratic women in Nevada — Sen. Jacky Rosen, Rep. Susie Lee and Rep. Dina Titus — should cruise to victory with no serious competition in their primaries today, but they'll be watching today's GOP primaries to see which Republicans they'll face in November, when their races could be close, as Geoffrey wrote in 538's primary preview.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor