If voters are focused on immigration, as the preliminary exit polling shows, that almost certainly plays to Trump’s strengths. In a February poll from The Citadel School of Humanities and Social Sciences, 85 percent of likely GOP primary voters in South Carolina said that they supported the use of state funds under Gov. Henry McMaster’s order to deploy South Carolina National Guard troops to the U.S.-Mexico border last year, while just 11 percent opposed the decision. Among South Carolina voters overall, 57 percent supported the decision, while 35 percent opposed it. This echoes Trump’s position on the issue.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

I’m reminded that in 2022, Haley stuck her neck out for 1st District Rep. Nancy Mace when Mace faced a Trump-endorsed challenger in the GOP primary. Haley even cut an ad for Mace who went on to defeat her opponent by just 8 points. Mace returned the favor by endorsing Trump over Haley in this year’s primary.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

As they cast their ballots for the former president, many Palmetto State voters had immigration and economy on the brain, according to preliminary results from ABC News exit polling. A staggering 71 percent said they trusted Trump more on border security, compared to 27 percent who said they trusted Haley more, and by 69 percent said they trusted Trump more on the economy. They were unconvinced by Haley’s recent pivot to frame Trump as old and incompetent — 71 percent of voters said Trump had both the physical and mental health necessary to be president, while only 59 percent said Haley did.

As Geoffrey wrote earlier this week, the state’s electorate is part of what gave Trump such a sharp edge tonight, and the preliminary exit polling demonstrates it: 61 percent of Republican voters in the exit polling identified themselves as evangelical white Christians, and of them, Trump won 75 percent of the vote.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

Update on the delegate watch: At about 24 percent reporting statewide, ABC News projects Trump has won 38 delegates out of 50 so far. That includes 29 delegates for winning the state popular vote and 9 for winning 3 congressional districts. There are 12 delegates from 4 districts where ABC News has yet to make projections — but Trump currently leads every CD by at least 10 points! But in the district that would be most favorable to Haley, CD-01, home to Charleston, we have few votes. So she could end up getting 3 delegates tonight ... in her home state.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538

I have become a little obsessed tonight about what we should be expecting Trump to hit in this primary a priori. That is, given Trump is assumed to be the eventual party nominee and almost universally liked in the GOP, should he be winning more than 60 percent in South Carolina?

I already gave my case for answering "no" to that question: Strictly speaking Trump is dominating the delegate count and running ahead of his 2016 vote share in most counties with complete counts this primary cycle. And if you consider that Haley gets a home-state advantage in South Carolina tonight, Trump's adjusted vote share is close to 65 or 70 percent; our delegate benchmarks think Trump should have won 68 percent of the vote based on the demographics of the state alone. That's not the highest number, but it's not the lowest right? Would 65 percent be "good" for Trump? 75 percent? 80?

One counterargument to this centers around how the media has covered historical performances by incumbent presidential candidates. Journalist Jill Lawrence points out that in 1992, Patrick Buchanan challenged incumbent President George H.W. Bush for the GOP nomination and won 40 percent in the New Hampshire primary, holding Bush to 58 percent of the vote. That's an almost identical split to the results from tonight. The New York Times journalist Robin Toner wrote up the results with the headline "BUSH JARRED IN FIRST PRIMARY" and said the result "amounted to a roar of anger" from Republican primary voters.

If Trump was a true incumbent, I imagine the news media would use a similar headline to describe tonight's results in South Carolina. Perhaps our expectations for him are too low, or we're too focused on the broader state of play? Haley said in her concession speech tonight that she will stay in the race indefinitely, so I guess we'll get more data on Super Tuesday — only 10 days from now. The primary lives on!

—G. Elliott Morris, 538