As they cast their ballots for the former president, many Palmetto State voters had immigration and economy on the brain, according to preliminary results from ABC News exit polling. A staggering 71 percent said they trusted Trump more on border security, compared to 27 percent who said they trusted Haley more, and by 69 percent said they trusted Trump more on the economy. They were unconvinced by Haley’s recent pivot to frame Trump as old and incompetent — 71 percent of voters said Trump had both the physical and mental health necessary to be president, while only 59 percent said Haley did.

As Geoffrey wrote earlier this week, the state’s electorate is part of what gave Trump such a sharp edge tonight, and the preliminary exit polling demonstrates it: 61 percent of Republican voters in the exit polling identified themselves as evangelical white Christians, and of them, Trump won 75 percent of the vote.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

Update on the delegate watch: At about 24 percent reporting statewide, ABC News projects Trump has won 38 delegates out of 50 so far. That includes 29 delegates for winning the state popular vote and 9 for winning 3 congressional districts. There are 12 delegates from 4 districts where ABC News has yet to make projections — but Trump currently leads every CD by at least 10 points! But in the district that would be most favorable to Haley, CD-01, home to Charleston, we have few votes. So she could end up getting 3 delegates tonight ... in her home state.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538

Trump is projected to win tonight, and, as expected, his edge is showing up as we get actual returns from around South Carolina. With 24 percent of the expected vote reporting, he leads Haley by 15 points, 57 percent to 42 percent. We have nearly all the vote in from three counties, but only one especially sizable one: Berkeley County, which sits next door to Charleston. There, Trump leads by 17 points, 58 percent to 41 percent. In trying to gauge just how strong that is for Trump relative to 2016, it's a tad bit worse than the combined 62 percent vote share that Trump, Ted Cruz and Ben Carson collected in the county back then. Still, it points to the all-but-certain outcome of a Trump victory tonight.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Haley still hasn’t come out to address supporters yet. This is probably reading too much into it, but the longer she waits, the more I wonder if she is going to drop out. After New Hampshire, she spoke almost immediately.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Let's not sugar-coat this: If the polls are right, Haley will lose badly to Trump in South Carolina, her home state, tonight. According to 538's average of polls, Trump commands the support of 62 percent of likely primary voters compared with Haley's 34 percent. Haley has gained ground in recent weeks, likely a result of voter consolidation as the rest of the candidates dropped out after voting in Iowa and New Hampshire, but so has Trump.

Moreover, according to a poll released this week by Suffolk University/USA Today (which had a very similar breakdown to our average), Trump is leading Haley with most major demographics in the state. The former president leads among Republicans and conservatives, groups that make up 76 and 81 percent of Republican primary voters in the state, respectively. Haley, meanwhile, holds an almost 20-point lead among respondents who described themselves as moderate or liberal and a 26-point lead among those who say the most important issue is the future of democracy.

According to my colleague Geoffrey Skelley, if Trump wins by as much as the polls imply, it would be the best-ever performance for a non-incumbent presidential candidate in South Carolina primary history. (The current record is George H.W. Bush's 28-point win over Bob Dole in 1988.) Surely the Haley campaign will try to spin a victory out of defeat — Trump is no easy opponent, to be fair — but with these numbers there's simply no denying Trump's strength.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538