South Carolina primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to stay in the race
What can we take away from Trump's big Palmetto State victory?
Former President Donald Trump has won the South Carolina Republican primary, ABC News projects. It was a swift and embarrassing defeat for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who rose to political prominence as South Carolina’s governor. Nevertheless, in her concession speech, Haley vowed to continue her campaign into Super Tuesday on March 5.
Throughout the evening, 538 reporters, analysts and contributors broke down the results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Other candidates will be on the ballot, but Haley might have advantage
That's true, Nathaniel. But maybe Haley is hoping that actively campaigning, and still having a campaign apparatus running, will give her an advantage over the other also-rans.
—Monica Potts, 538
Is Trump is heading for a delegate sweep?
Remember that the primary is ultimately all about the delegates candidates win to vote for them at the RNC in July. In the delegate math tonight, Trump is coming out way ahead. South Carolina awards delegates in two sets: 29 are awarded to the winner of the statewide popular vote (which are all going to Trump tonight) and the remaining 21 are split equally between the remaining 7 congressional districts. According to ABC's delegate projections Trump has already won 38 delegates tonight, with 12 left to assign in 4 more districts. But if Trump is heading for a 30-point margin statewide, it's unlikely Haley will win any of those that remain.
Our delegate benchmarks model had Haley needing all 50 tonight to be on track for the GOP nomination. It is her home state, after all.
—G. Elliott Morris, 538
You guys never watched “Rowan & Martin’s Laugh-In”?
Am I the only one who uses the term "bet your bippy"??
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Don't underestimate the ego factor
Right, so why is Haley sticking around if Trump is the presumptive nominee? We've put together a few hypotheses — spite, in case something happens, sticking it to the man etc — but, as ever with politicians, we cannot discount the possibility that she's in it for her. I keep thinking of Beto O'Rourke's "born to run" comments in the 2020 primary. A lot of politicians think this way!
—G. Elliott Morris, 538
Haley has gained ground but significantly lags Trump
Let's not sugar-coat this: If the polls are right, Haley will lose badly to Trump in South Carolina, her home state, tonight. According to 538's average of polls, Trump commands the support of 62 percent of likely primary voters compared with Haley's 34 percent. Haley has gained ground in recent weeks, likely a result of voter consolidation as the rest of the candidates dropped out after voting in Iowa and New Hampshire, but so has Trump.
Moreover, according to a poll released this week by Suffolk University/USA Today (which had a very similar breakdown to our average), Trump is leading Haley with most major demographics in the state. The former president leads among Republicans and conservatives, groups that make up 76 and 81 percent of Republican primary voters in the state, respectively. Haley, meanwhile, holds an almost 20-point lead among respondents who described themselves as moderate or liberal and a 26-point lead among those who say the most important issue is the future of democracy.
According to my colleague Geoffrey Skelley, if Trump wins by as much as the polls imply, it would be the best-ever performance for a non-incumbent presidential candidate in South Carolina primary history. (The current record is George H.W. Bush's 28-point win over Bob Dole in 1988.) Surely the Haley campaign will try to spin a victory out of defeat — Trump is no easy opponent, to be fair — but with these numbers there's simply no denying Trump's strength.
—G. Elliott Morris, 538