South Carolina primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to stay in the race
What can we take away from Trump's big Palmetto State victory?
Former President Donald Trump has won the South Carolina Republican primary, ABC News projects. It was a swift and embarrassing defeat for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who rose to political prominence as South Carolina’s governor. Nevertheless, in her concession speech, Haley vowed to continue her campaign into Super Tuesday on March 5.
Throughout the evening, 538 reporters, analysts and contributors broke down the results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Have we talked about the gender angle of Haley's candidacy?
To Jacob's point, the "go ahead and underestimate me" phrase is a very clearly gendered one. And Trump's reputation on this issue hasn't gotten as much attention as it did in 2016, but it's not clear that some of the issues have gone away. Plus, Haley may also be highlighting the fact that, as far as she is from being a real contender for the nomination, this is the closest any GOP woman has come.
—Julia Azari, 538 contributor
Great point, Jacob
People forget this, but McMaster was the first statewide elected official to endorse Trump back in 2016. Haley’s appointment to U.N. ambassador cleared the way for him to become governor, a post he still holds today.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Spite might be a good reason, too
Nathaniel, I think that another explanation for Haley’s continued presence in the race is less political and more personal. Clearly, the two candidates don’t get along, and never really have. (Remember that the only reason Trump even tapped Haley as ambassador was as a favor to then-Lt. Gov. McMaster.) With the race getting increasingly chippy and personal, I think Haley may be staying in for longer than politically savvy because she knows just how much it gets under Trump’s skin. This is, after all, a politician who sells shirts that say "Go ahead and underestimate me, that’ll be fun."
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
I think that’s right, Kaleigh
It was pretty clear Trump was going to be the nominee after New Hampshire. I think maybe Haley could be forgiven for trying to stay in for a couple more weeks to see if she could move the needle in South Carolina, a state she knows so well. But after it was clear that Trump’s polling lead wasn’t shrinking, she lost any practical justification for staying in the race.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Haley has gained ground but significantly lags Trump
Let's not sugar-coat this: If the polls are right, Haley will lose badly to Trump in South Carolina, her home state, tonight. According to 538's average of polls, Trump commands the support of 62 percent of likely primary voters compared with Haley's 34 percent. Haley has gained ground in recent weeks, likely a result of voter consolidation as the rest of the candidates dropped out after voting in Iowa and New Hampshire, but so has Trump.
Moreover, according to a poll released this week by Suffolk University/USA Today (which had a very similar breakdown to our average), Trump is leading Haley with most major demographics in the state. The former president leads among Republicans and conservatives, groups that make up 76 and 81 percent of Republican primary voters in the state, respectively. Haley, meanwhile, holds an almost 20-point lead among respondents who described themselves as moderate or liberal and a 26-point lead among those who say the most important issue is the future of democracy.
According to my colleague Geoffrey Skelley, if Trump wins by as much as the polls imply, it would be the best-ever performance for a non-incumbent presidential candidate in South Carolina primary history. (The current record is George H.W. Bush's 28-point win over Bob Dole in 1988.) Surely the Haley campaign will try to spin a victory out of defeat — Trump is no easy opponent, to be fair — but with these numbers there's simply no denying Trump's strength.
—G. Elliott Morris, 538