There are significant differences between primaries and general elections. (If you’re reading this live blog, I’d bet Nathaniel’s next paycheck you already know that.) But I don’t think we should lose sight of where specifically Trump is struggling in South Carolina and in the other early states: metro areas and the suburbs. Tonight, the three counties Haley won happen to be the three counties with the highest educational attainment in the state. We know that one of the primary engines of Democratic success in every cycle since 2016, really, has been improved fortunes among suburban and educated voters. Most Haley voters will end up voting for Trump, yes, but I don’t think it’s insignificant that even as he flexes control over the GOP for eight years running, his problems in the suburbs are still as evident as ever.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

We don't have final results by congressional district (much less overall), but as we can see from a map of the results, Haley is doing better along the coast near Charleston than in much of the rest of South Carolina. That may signal that Haley could carry the 1st Congressional District once all is said and done to win three delegates. That may not seem like much, but Trump swept South Carolina's delegates in 2016, and if Haley is sticking around, winning any delegates has to be part of her strategy to carry on.

Half of the 1st District's population is in Charleston and Beaufort counties, according to Daily Kos Elections — both of which Haley currently lead in. Another 49 percent of the district lies in Berkeley and Dorchester counties, both of which Trump holds an edge in (the remaining 1 percent is in Colleton and Jasper counties). Charleston and Dorchester are both split between the 1st and 6th, so we can't figure out the district-level result based purely on the county-level numbers. So we'll have to see. But Haley's showing in the 1st might be her one bright spot tonight.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

You’re right, Nathaniel, this isn’t a real primary. If nothing really dramatic happens, Trump is going to easily walk to the nomination. My silver lining: Super Tuesday marks the start of our downballot primary season, with primary races for Senate in California and Texas, and primaries for House races in five states. So perhaps we’ll have something more competitive to talk about soon.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

Well, this wasn’t the most eventful primary night I’ve ever live-blogged. But this gave me a chance to reflect on the increasingly unusual nature of Haley’s candidacy. I can see an emerging narrative about her speech, in which she positioned herself directly against the polarization represented by a Biden-Trump matchup. Haley is a former member of the Trump administration, yet she’s positioned herself more and more as a Trump alternative — not a Trump substitute. She’s focused mainly on the electability issue, but she did sound a bit like a center-right third party candidate there. That’s not all that struck me though — Haley has also run an explicitly gendered campaign, talking about her 5-inch heels and “if you want something done, ask a woman.” She is only the second woman to win delegates in Republican primaries or caucuses. (Carly Fiorina was the first.) As we track the (Trump-dominated) horse race, we shouldn’t lose sight of what a unique candidate she is.

—Julia Azari, 538 contributor

The Republican presidential primary started out in territory pretty friendly to Haley. That changes after today, making the South Carolina primary a sort of last chance for the former Palmetto State governor to prove she actually has a path to the 1,215 delegates necessary to secure the GOP nomination. It looks somewhere between unlikely and impossible that she'll be able to pull that off.

It's all about the numbers. According to the polls, Trump leads Haley by about 30 points among likely Republican primary voters. But his delegate lead is what really matters — and it's likely to be even larger. That's because the South Carolina Republican Party awards its delegates on a winner-takes-all basis. About half the delegates will go to the winner of the statewide vote (almost certainly Trump) and the remainder will go to the winner of each of the state's seven congressional districts. With a 30-point statewide victory, Trump would probably win every district resoundingly; in 2016, the largest difference between Trump's statewide margin (10 points) and his margin in the most anti-Trump county (which he lost by 5 points to Marco Rubio) was only 15 points.

This is all disastrous news for Haley, who needs all 50 delegates from the state to be on track to win the Republican nomination. The competition on and after Super Tuesday will be even tougher. According to the math powering 538's delegate benchmarks, Trump is leading Haley by around 57 points in California and 69 in Texas, the states with the largest delegate hauls on Super Tuesday. Those states also allocate delegates on a winner-takes-all basis, as long as a candidate wins at least 50 percent of the vote.

The primary, in other words, is functionally over. But because Trump has not yet clinched a majority of delegates, Haley's campaign technically has a chance of winning. It's just very, very low.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538