Overnight last night, ABC News projected that firearms manufacturer Pat Harrigan will be the GOP nominee in North Carolina's 10th District. He defeated more conservative Republican Grey Mills 41 percent to 39 percent. The 10th District is a solidly red seat currently represented by retiring Rep. Patrick McHenry, and Harrigan should have no trouble winning it in the fall.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Last night, the "uncommitted" campaign made headway in a few more states. After a protest vote for Biden's response to Israel's war against Gaza helped net over 100,000 uncommitted votes in last week's Michigan Democratic primary, supporters of the Listen to Michigan campaign expanded their efforts to other states with "uncommitted" or similar language as an option on primary ballots.

With 89 percent of the expected vote reporting, 19 percent of Democratic primary voters in Minnesota voted uncommitted, eclipsing the 13 percent reached last week in Michigan. That means "uncommitted" will send at least 8 (and up to 11) delegates from Minnesota to the Democratic National Convention in August, per the latest ABC News projections.

"No preference" also garnered 13 percent of ballots cast in North Carolina and 9 percent in Massachusetts, while 8 percent of primary voters in Colorado chose "noncommitted." However, those aren't enough to meet their respective states' thresholds to send a delegate to the national convention. (That's 15 percent in all three of those states.)

—Irena Li, 538

While Haley called on Trump to earn Republicans' votes, Mitch McConnell suggested that he already has. "It is abundantly clear that former President Trump has earned the requisite support of Republican voters to be our nominee for President of the United States," McConnell said in a statement. The rest was pretty standard endorsement fare, going on to tout Trump's accomplishments on tax reform and judicial appointments, and criticizing Biden.

It's an undramatic end to the minor drama over whether the soon-departing majority leader would endorse Trump, with whom he's undoubtedly had a rocky relationship. In the end, McConnell waited until just after Trump's final major opponent dropped out to fall in line. With one of the last major (potential) party holdouts in his corner, the general election train is in full swing for Trump.

—Tia Yang, 538

According to the latest numbers from our colleagues at ABC News, Trump has 1,051 of the 1,215 delegates he needs to mathematically clinch the Republican nomination for president. Haley's withdrawal from the race puts him on track to reach that magic number next Tuesday, March 12. A total of 199 delegates will be allocated between now and then, and presumably Trump will win all or almost all of them.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Tonight, I'll be paying close attention to the results coming in from Alabama's GOP presidential primary.

That's not because there is much doubt about the outcome. Against stiffer competition in 2016, Trump carried every county in this Republican-dominated state, winning by 22 percentage points statewide. In 2024 primaries so far, Trump has tended to do well not only in places where he did well eight years ago, but also in places where Ted Cruz, the leading candidate among more conservative and evangelical voters, did well. Since Cruz finished second in Alabama in 2016, it's not a very promising state for Haley.

But even without much question about who's going to win statewide, Alabama serves as a bellwether for the state of today's Republican Party. It's the state with the highest population share of evangelical Protestants nationwide, a focal constituency of the contemporary GOP. Alabama has also been home to several competitive GOP primaries in recent years that can jointly tell us a lot about competition in the party today. Even after Trump's rise to the top of the party in 2016, precinct-level returns in Alabama's Senate primaries make clear that there aren't consistent pro-Trump and anti-Trump blocs going head-to-head in election after election. Instead, GOP candidates in recent Alabama primaries have put together somewhat idiosyncratic geographic coalitions.

Consider 2017, when appointed U.S. Senator Luther Strange, who had the backing of both Trump and the GOP establishment, competed against judge Roy Moore in a special election for the GOP's Senate nomination. Despite accusations of child sexual abuse, Moore prevailed over Strange in the primary (before losing to Democrat Doug Jones). New research suggests that in that primary, precinct-level support for Moore was higher in places where Trump and Ben Carson had done better in 2016, but the correlations are pretty modestly sized. In other words, knowing where Trump did better in 2016 really didn't have much predictive power in the next year. Still, Marco Rubio's 2016 vote share was negatively associated with Moore's, meaning those two candidates drew support from different places.

2020 may provide a clearer test: Trump's first supporter in the U.S. Senate and subsequent attorney general, Jeff Sessions, was running to take back his old seat, but Trump and Sessions had since fallen out and Trump instead endorsed the eventual winner, Tommy Tuberville. The places that had backed Trump in 2016 were somewhat less supportive of Sessions in 2020. Still, these correlations were pretty modest, and Trump's 2016 support also wasn't strongly correlated with backing either of Sessions's major opponents, Tuberville or Bradley Byrne.

And in the 2022 Republican Senate primary, Trump support was slightly negatively associated with 2022 support for both Rep. Mo Brooks, the conservative whom Trump unendorsed during the campaign, and eventual winner Katie Britt, who he did endorse. Trump's 2016 vote was only somewhat positively correlated with support for Mike Durant, a helicopter pilot who was shot down in Somalia as part of the battle depicted in "Black Hawk Down." But like 2017 and 2020, the 2022 Republican primary was not just a rerun of 2016.

Now, with Trump himself on the ballot, it's a different story. I expect that Trump will do very well in the parts of Alabama that he dominated in 2016 (read: most of the state), and that Haley's vote margins will be slightly stronger around Birmingham and Huntsville, just as Rubio did eight years ago. This was true in New Hampshire, for example, where Trump's 2016 precinct-level vote share was correlated with his 2024 vote share at 0.63, a strong correlation given the very different competition he faced in the two years. But, as a close look at Alabama primaries in recent years shows, Trump's 2016 supporters haven't necessarily formed a cohesive voting faction. During the Trump era, when Trump is not on the ballot himself, voters haven't always hewed closely to the divisions he has fostered.

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor