With results coming in from Virginia, I'm keeping an eye on the Commonwealth's southeastern corner. Not only is it home to Virginia Beach, the largest city in Virginia, it's also home to a substantial number of military families. In 2020 at least, donations from those serving in the U.S. military split more evenly between Democrats and Republicans than some might expect. So far, Trump is winning Virginia Beach by roughly a 2 to 1 margin, while Haley is keeping it closer in neighboring Norfolk with 42 percent of the vote so far.

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor

ABC News projects that Trump will win the GOP primary in Maine. With about 8 percent of the expected vote counted, he leads Haley, 69 percent to 22 percent.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Folks who are reading a 538 live blog have probably seen the general election polling showing Trump leading nationally by 2-3 percentage points and leading in the battleground state by more like 3-5 points. That is the answer you are looking for if you want to understand the current state of the races. Emphasis on current, meaning 8 months before the actual election when polls are historically not predictive. Now, there may be caveats about polls shifting less than usual over the coming months because Trump and Biden are already so well defined. But that's a theory, not a fact.

One dynamic in the primary that I do think is worth thinking about in understanding whether those numbers will shift or how, is where the challenge is coming from in both parties. Trump is being challenged by someone who is ideologically closer to Biden than to his Right flank. Biden's most enthusiastic opposition is coming from his left flank, aka not ideologically anywhere close to Trump. Folks always have the option of staying home or voting third party, but if I was Trump's campaign I would not like that dynamic ... particularly given that Biden's victory in 2020 came from an overperformance among independent/moderate voters.

Look at me, doing the thing I just said we shouldn't do.

—Galen Druke, 538

With 28 percent of the expected vote reported, the Republican presidential primary in Vermont looks so close. Right now, Trump and Haley are tied with 48 percent.

—Monica Potts, 538

The presidential primaries are, for all intents and purposes, over. That means we can finally shift our focus to the primaries that are going to have the most impact on the outcome in November, in the House and Senate. Tonight we saw the first of those contests, and they did not disappoint. In Alabama, an appropriator, Rep. Jerry Carl, lost to a firebrand colleague, Barry Moore, in a member versus member primary. (Let's see what that does to morale in the GOP conference.) In California, Adam Schiff successfully engineered an uncompetitive general election against Republican Steve Garvey, freeing up tens of millions in small donor dollars for races elsewhere around the country. In North Carolina, a bevy of upcoming runoffs will help determine what shape the next House GOP conference takes. And in Texas, we're going to find out in the 23rd District just how much deviation from party orthodoxy is tolerated, when Tony Gonzales faces the music for his votes on a gun bill (negotiated by the state's own senior GOP senator!). Presidential season may be over, but the fun is just beginning.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections