I've already gone on about Phillips a bit tonight, but I think it's interesting that he tried to challenge Biden from the center, or mostly on the basis of personal characteristics. This feels notable because Biden's major weakness would seem to be from the left. But the main vehicle for opposition votes to Biden has been the "uncommitted" movement — not a specific candidate. This might be because the progressive wing of the party doesn't have a younger and agreed-upon candidate yet, or because they see Biden as the best realistic bet for achieving some of their policy goals.

—Julia Azari, 538 contributor

As Monica just noted, about the only drama in the presidential primary contests tonight can be found in Vermont, where Haley actually might defeat Trump in a traditional, state-run primary (unlike the party-run primary she won in Washington, D.C., over the weekend).

So, what's going on in Vermont? Fundamentally, the Republican primary electorate just isn't as conservative in Vermont. I've been using the 2016 Republican nomination race as a back-of-the-napkin guide to the makeup of the GOP electorate this year, and it's been useful. At this point, we could split the GOP into two parts: those who voted for Trump, Ted Cruz and Ben Carson, who tend to make up the Trumpier part of the GOP now; and those who backed Marco Rubio and John Kasich, who aren't as inclined to back Trump. Looking at how the Super Tuesday states voted in 2016, you'll notice that Vermont is the only state voting today in which the combined vote share for Rubio and Kasich outdistanced the Trump, Cruz and Carson cohort.

Back in 2016, the types of voters who backed Rubio and Kasich tended to be more moderate and more likely to hold a four-year college degree. In that sense, they attracted parts of the GOP coalition (and beyond) that make up much of Haley's coalition this year. As we already discussed, some Democratic-leaning voters may have helped Haley in every contest, and Vermont happens to also be a very blue state full of those voters.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

With Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz projected to win his primary — he's got 89 percent of the votes counted so far — the question becomes whether he will face as tough a race in November as he did back in 2018. Six years ago, he beat Beto O'Rourke by just 2.6 percentage points, raising questions about whether Democrats could actually win a statewide federal race in the Lone Star State. But recently, his approval rating has notched up after being underwater for much of 2021 and 2022. On the Democratic side, Colin Allred is winning 62 percent of the Democratic vote with just over half the expected vote in.

—Dan Hopkins, 538 Contributor

In the Democratic primary for the Texas’s 15th Congressional District, Michelle Vallejo is leading with 32 percent of the expected vote in. She ran unsuccessfully for the seat in the 2022 midterms, but she’s leading her opponent, John Villarreal Rigney, 73 percent to 27 percent, according to The New York Times. Villarreal Rigney tried to run as the more conservative candidate, but Vallejo has the endorsement of much of the Democratic establishment and the pro-Israel group, Democratic Majority for Israel, or DMFI. AIPAC has endorsed her Republican opponent, the current incumbent, Rep. Monica de la Cruz. If Democrats can flip any seat in Texas, this is a likely one, making this race potentially competitive in November. Both AIPAC and DMFI have invested on the Democratic side to try to fend of progressive, anti-war challengers in Congress.

—Monica Potts, 538

On Sunday, Republicans in Washington, D.C., voted for Haley by nearly 30 percentage points in the GOP's party-run primary, giving her all 19 national delegates from the nation's capital. This marked her first victory anywhere in this year’s primary contest, and the first ever primary or caucus victory for a woman in the history of Republican nomination races. Yet the other contests that took place just ahead of Super Tuesday otherwise showcased Trump's strong hold over his party's base. This included victories on Saturday in caucus-convention races in Idaho, Michigan and Missouri, and in North Dakota's Republican caucuses on Monday.

In Michigan, Republicans gathered at Saturday's state party convention to allocate 39 national delegates from the state’s 13 congressional districts (three per district). The voters consisted of precinct delegates mostly elected at the August 2022 state primary as well as Republican elected officials, and they handed Trump all 39 district-level delegates. This result brought Trump's Michigan haul to 51 of the state's 55 delegates, after he had already won 12 of its 16 at-large delegates in the Feb. 27 primary.

The Michigan GOP's split primary-caucus approach came about in part because national Democrats added Michigan to the early part of their presidential primary calendar, prompting the Democratic-controlled state government to shift the state’s primary date into late February. Since the new date violated the national GOP's calendar rules, Michigan Republicans used a workaround whereby the primary results would allocate the state's at-large national delegates, but the state party didn’t formally make the allocation until March, at Saturday’s caucus-convention that also allocated district-level delegates.

Trump also swept caucuses in Idaho and Missouri on Saturday, and then North Dakota on Monday. In Idaho, Trump won 85 percent of caucusgoers, easily surpassing the state's 50 percent winner-take-all threshold to capture all 32 of Idaho's national delegates. In Missouri, Trump won every state- and congressional district convention delegate elected at local caucuses around the state, all but guaranteeing that he will sweep all 51 national delegates when the district and state conventions formally allocate delegates in April and May, respectively. And in a near-repeat of Idaho, Trump won 84 percent of caucusgoers in North Dakota on Monday to claim all 29 of the state’s national delegates.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538