With 70 percent of the expected vote reporting in Vermont, Trump and Haley are tied again at 48 percent each. If Haley wins there, it might compel her to stay in past tonight, but the overall delegate math is still against her.

—Monica Potts, 538

Want to know more about territories like American Samoa, which participate in the nomination process but aren't states — and thus don't have Electoral College votes or representation in Congress? I recommend this fascinating book, "The Not-Quite-States of America" by journalist Doug Mack. It explores the contradictions in the status of these areas and how it affects the people who live there.

—Julia Azari, 538 contributor

Well, well, well. It turns out neither Trump nor Biden will sweep every presidential nominating contest this year. ABC News can confirm that Biden has lost the Democratic caucuses in the territory of American Samoa to Jason Palmer.

Who is Jason Palmer, you ask? One of the many no-name candidates who runs for president every year. According to DDHQ’s Derek Willis, Palmer actually visited American Samoa to campaign, which explains how he was able to accomplish something that neither Marianne Williamson nor Dean Phillips has been able to do this year.

P.S. What’s up with American Samoa and Democratic caucuses? You may recall that, back in 2020, it was the only state or territory to vote for Michael Bloomberg.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor

As Geoffrey said, polls just closed in our two big Eastern states tonight, Vermont and Virginia. Tonight, I'll be keeping an eye on Vermont early. Vermont is much like its neighbor, New Hampshire, in that it has the demographics that ought to be favorable to Haley. It's one of the least religious states in the country and has a high rate of college attainment. Moreover, Haley has the backing of the Republican establishment in the state. The primary is open, meaning that independents and Democrats could cross the aisle to vote for her, and her campaign has visited the state recently, hoping to drum up support. But she's still earning only about a third of the vote in recent polling, and odds are she'll be disappointed there. Since it's a winner-take-all state, she could walk away with none of its 17 delegates. As Nathaniel wrote after the first-in-the-nation primary in New Hampshire, if Haley couldn't win there, she probably won't win anywhere.

—Monica Potts, 538