Nathaniel just mentioned Nikki Haley's strength in the well-educated, affluent communities around Boston. If you want to learn more about that group, its connection to the defense industry, its ambivalent views on racial integration, and its long-term movement into the Democratic coalition, check out historian Lily Geismer's book "Don't Blame Us".

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor

Trump is speaking now (right on schedule, for once!) and it's one of those "pivot to the general" speeches candidates give once they win the nomination. But it's also like he's playing his greatest hits on 1.5x speed: In the last five minutes, he has talked about immigration (saying migrants are coming in on airplanes), ISIS (he says he wiped them out in four weeks), inflation (chastising "Bidenomics") and energy generation, and he attacked Biden for his age (at one point claiming that the president cannot lift a beach chair which "weighs nine ounces").

One thing missing? Any mention of Haley. Remember, Trump is not technically the nominee until the convention says so, and he's not the presumptive nominee until he wins enough delegates. He is having a super Super Tuesday tonight, but he's not quite there ... yet.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538

Dean Phillips's tepid campaign may not last until the morning. Phillips has previously stated that he would drop out and endorse the likely Democratic nominee if his campaign wasn't viable after Super Tuesday. So far, his highest level of support tonight is in Oklahoma, where he's currently pulling 9 percent of the Democratic primary vote. That's closely followed by his home state of Minnesota, where he's winning a similar level of support. But at least he can say he won something today: tiny Cimarron County in the Oklahoma panhandle, where he currently leads Biden by five votes out of 21 total that were cast.

—Cooper Burton, 538

Trump is winning Massachusetts 61 percent to 36 percent, but as you can see in the map below, Haley is winning Boston and many of its well-to-do western suburbs like Concord, Wellesley and Weston. While these towns are now solidly Democratic, they are also home to a lot of the fiscally conservative, socially liberal voters who have supported moderate Republicans for governor like Mitt Romney and Charlie Baker. It’s basically the exact kind of well-educated voter that hates Trump but misses the old Republican Party, which Haley has become an avatar for.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

In several of California's open congressional districts, tonight could be the end of any suspense about who the next representative will be. Or, it could be the start of an eight-month intraparty slog.

That's because California's unique all-party primary system — where the top two primary vote-getters advance to the general election — allows for either a traditional contest between a Democrat and a Republican or a fight between members of the same party in the general election, and it's not always obvious which one you're going to get. That's the case in at least four open-seat races today — three Democratic and one Republican.

In California's 16th District, there are nine Democrats but just two Republicans vying to replace Democratic Rep. Anna Eshoo. While limited polling of the district suggests that former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo or Santa Clara Supervisor Joe Simitian, both Democrats, are the front-runners, if one of the two Republicans consolidates most of the GOP vote and the Democratic vote scatters among the many candidates, a Republican could finish in the top two. In the 2022 primary, the Republican candidates didn't meet that threshold, splitting a combined 22 percent of the vote; the four GOP candidates in the state's Senate race won a combined 24 percent in the district. A Republican advancing would ensure that whichever Democrat also finished ahead would win the general election in November, given the district's partisan bent. But if two Democrats finish in the top two, it'll be a real race.

Same goes in the 30th District, where Adam Schiff is leaving to run for Senate. Twelve Democrats and just two Republicans will appear on the ballot there. In the 2022 primary, four GOP House candidates totaled 21 percent, and Senate GOP candidates combined for a smaller 22 percent. Democratic state legislators Anthony Portantino and Laura Friedman, and Democratic former city attorney Mike Feuer are the front-runners for this seat; if two of those three make it to the general election, it will be an expensive and sharp-elbowed race to November, but if one of the Republicans squeezes in, it's basically over.

In the 31st District, where Democrat Grace Napolitano is retiring, six Democrats and two Republicans are running. In 2022, the one Republican running for the seat, Daniel Martinez, advanced to the general by winning 37 percent of the vote in the primary. Former Rep. Gil Cisneros, state Sens. Susan Rubio and Bob Archuleta, former Monrovia Mayor Mary Ann Lutz and attorney Greg Hafif are all running well-funded Democratic campaigns, creating the possibility that Martinez, who is running again, could finish in the top two instead of two Democrats, effectively ending this race tonight.

And in Kevin McCarthy's old seat, the 20th District, it's a similar story with the parties reversed. There, the two Democrats will probably combine for around 30 percent of the primary vote (in 2022, the House candidates combined for 30 percent and the Senate candidates for 32 percent), while six Republicans fight over the remaining 70 percent (a seventh dropped out but remains on the ballot).

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections