ABC News projects that Biden will win the Utah Democratic primary. With about 47 percent of the expected vote counted, Biden has 88 percent in the Beehive State.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Time for our first update of what's happening in the Republican primary in Alabama's 1st District. There, court-ordered redistricting precipitated an incumbent-versus-incumbent contest between Reps. Barry Moore and Jerry Carl. With nearly half of the expected vote now reporting, Moore leads Carl 57.5 percent to 42.5 percent. Moore's edge might come as a surprise considering Carl outraised Moore and had more outside spending help. Moreover, Carl currently represents more of the new 1st District under the old district lines. But Carl still could catch Moore thanks to his home base of Mobile County, where only 9 percent of the expected vote has reported, with Carl up 74 percent to 26 percent.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

I’m sure I’m not the only reporter who’s been receiving emails from Anderson Group Public Affairs, a PR firm flacking for Jason Palmer for several months now. I guess I should have been paying more attention before just sending them to my trash! Also, I think he’s the only candidate working with a PR firm that also sends emails with the subject line “Interview Entrepreneur Behind Billion Dollar Sex Toy Company.”

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

You’re not alone. He’s currently trending on Twi—I mean X, and his campaign website appears to have crashed.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

It has become somewhat of a theme of our live blogs this primary calendar to note that Trump's challengers are beating their polls. This first looked to be the case in New Hampshire, where polls significantly underestimate support among Republican likely voters for Haley. But the pattern is more robust than one state: In fact Haley has been beating her polls by an average of five points (in vote share) once you account for undecided voters in these surveys. The consistency of this pattern is striking enough to warrant a post on the matter.

As Mary said earlier, polling primaries is hard! That is betrayed by the fact that POTUS primary polls are by far the least accurate type of poll in 538's pollster rating database going back to 1999. But error is different than bias, and when most of the polls are off in the same direction, something has gone awry.

That "something" is likely the difficulty in obtaining opinions of moderate Republicans from samples of "likely Republican primary voters." Remember that fewer than one percent of people called for a poll actually complete the interview. That means the ones that do are statistical "weirdos" (excuse the technical language). Pollsters adjust for this by weighting their samples to known population benchmarks — like the percent of all adults who are white, over 65, have a college education etc. But in primaries, such benchmarks do not actually exist; pollsters are just making educated guesses about them.

My theory is that most of these primary polls pulling samples of voters from voter registration lists are missing moderate crossover partisans and first-time voters. Additionally, we know that people who are highly motivated to participate in polls (the "weirdos") also happen to be the most politically and ideologically extreme Americans. That's a recipe for polling bias in primaries, where weighting to party, past vote and polarized demographic benchmarks does not control for the partisan consequences of overrepresenting politically engaged Americans.

Now, none of this is to say that polling is "broken." It's just hard to precisely sample a population that doesn't really exist. The polls for the 2024 primary still have below-average error, historically speaking, so we shouldn't go throwing out the baby with the bathwater. But this could nevertheless be a sign of pollsters having a hard time reaching moderate "normie" voters. And if that persists, it could have consequences for general election polls too.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538