Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Trump and Biden dominate, Haley drops out

538 tracked how Trump and Haley did, plus key U.S. House and Senate races.

March 5 was Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! With former President Donald Trump projected to win 14 of the day's 15 GOP presidential nominating contests, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley announced Wednesday morning that she is suspending her campaign.

It was also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas.

538 reporters, analysts and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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How will military towns break?

With results coming in from Virginia, I'm keeping an eye on the Commonwealth's southeastern corner. Not only is it home to Virginia Beach, the largest city in Virginia, it's also home to a substantial number of military families. In 2020 at least, donations from those serving in the U.S. military split more evenly between Democrats and Republicans than some might expect. So far, Trump is winning Virginia Beach by roughly a 2 to 1 margin, while Haley is keeping it closer in neighboring Norfolk with 42 percent of the vote so far.

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor


The Maine Event

ABC News projects that Trump will win the GOP primary in Maine. With about 8 percent of the expected vote counted, he leads Haley, 69 percent to 22 percent.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections


But since we're talking about the general ...

Folks who are reading a 538 live blog have probably seen the general election polling showing Trump leading nationally by 2-3 percentage points and leading in the battleground state by more like 3-5 points. That is the answer you are looking for if you want to understand the current state of the races. Emphasis on current, meaning 8 months before the actual election when polls are historically not predictive. Now, there may be caveats about polls shifting less than usual over the coming months because Trump and Biden are already so well defined. But that's a theory, not a fact.

One dynamic in the primary that I do think is worth thinking about in understanding whether those numbers will shift or how, is where the challenge is coming from in both parties. Trump is being challenged by someone who is ideologically closer to Biden than to his Right flank. Biden's most enthusiastic opposition is coming from his left flank, aka not ideologically anywhere close to Trump. Folks always have the option of staying home or voting third party, but if I was Trump's campaign I would not like that dynamic ... particularly given that Biden's victory in 2020 came from an overperformance among independent/moderate voters.

Look at me, doing the thing I just said we shouldn't do.

—Galen Druke, 538


It looks like Trump and Haley are neck and neck in Vermont right now

With 28 percent of the expected vote reported, the Republican presidential primary in Vermont looks so close. Right now, Trump and Haley are tied with 48 percent.

—Monica Potts, 538


Trump claimed the GOP nomination pretty fast historically

Back in late January, we wondered if the 2024 Republican presidential primary might be the shortest in modern history. But because Haley continued to contest the race until Super Tuesday, the competitive period of this year's GOP contest ended up falling short of setting any records. Still, it was undoubtedly on the quick side, historically.

The 2024 Republican race lasted 52 days from Iowa through today, during which time all states and the District of Columbia held 25 contests. The March 6 effective end date puts it just behind the record earliest end of a nomination season (March 3 in the 2004 Democratic contest) and the number of state-level elections (19 in the 2000 Democratic race). Nonetheless, going back to the 1976 election cycle, this year's Republican campaign was much shorter than the median number of competitive days (85 days), state-level contests (39) and end date (April 9).

To be clear, measuring the effective end date of a nomination race's competitive period is not always cut and dry, although it was this time around. We based our approach on political scientist Caitlin Jewitt's work on presidential primary competition, which classified a candidate as their party's presumptive nominee either when all viable opponents have dropped out or when they clinch a delegate majority from the results of primaries and caucuses. In Trump's case, Haley was his last viable opponent.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538