Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Trump and Biden dominate, Haley drops out

538 tracked how Trump and Haley did, plus key U.S. House and Senate races.

March 5 was Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! With former President Donald Trump projected to win 14 of the day's 15 GOP presidential nominating contests, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley announced Wednesday morning that she is suspending her campaign.

It was also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas.

538 reporters, analysts and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Biden and Trump are officially presumptive nominees

While we're still tracking a few lingering House races from Super Tuesday, four more states — Georgia, Hawaii, Mississippi and Washington — held presidential nominating contests yesterday, enabling both Biden and Trump to cross a significant milestone. According to ABC News's delegate estimates, last night Biden passed 1,968 delegates, mathematically clinching him the Democratic nomination. Similarly, Trump last night passed 1,215 delegates, mathematically clinching him the Republican nod.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


What races are we still waiting on?

As we wait for the final winners of Super Tuesday's primaries to be projected, here's where things stand in the races we're tracking:

- California's 16th District: With 57 percent of the expected vote reporting, Democrat Sam Liccardo has 22 percent, Democrat Joe Simitian has 18 percent, Democrat Evan Low has 16 percent and Republican Peter Ohtaki has 13 percent. This is a solid blue district, so we expect two Democrats to advance to the general election.

- California's 20th District: ABC News has projected that Republican Vince Fong (currently at 39 percent with 52 percent of the expected vote counted) will take one of the general-election slots, but the other is still up for grabs between Republican Mike Boudreaux (25 percent) and Democrat Marisa Wood (22 percent).

- California's 22nd District: With 50 percent of the expected vote counted, Republican incumbent David Valadao has 34 percent, Democrat Rudy Salas has 28 percent, Republican Chris Mathys has 22 percent and Democrat Melissa Hurtado has 15 percent. Democrats were afraid of getting shut out of the general election in this swing seat, but that doesn't look likely to happen now.

- California's 31st District: Democrats should maybe be more worried about a lockout in this open, safely Democratic seat. With 70 percent of the expected vote in, Democrat Gil Cisneros has 21 percent, Republican Daniel Martinez has 21 percent and Republican Pedro Casas has 19 percent.

- California's 45th District: ABC News has projected that Republican Rep. Michelle Steel will advance to the general; she has 57 percent of the expected vote with 82 percent reporting. Her November opponent will either be Democrat Derek Tran (16 percent) or Democrat Kim Nguyen-Penaloza (14 percent).

- North Carolina's 8th District: With 97 percent of the expected vote in, Republican Mark Harris is at 30.4 percent, just barely above the threshold to avoid a runoff. The Associated Press has already declared him the winner.

- Texas's 32nd District: Similarly, with 99 percent of the expected vote in, Democrat Julie Johnson is at 50.4 percent, which would just barely be enough to avoid a runoff. If she does face one, it would be against fellow Democrat Brian Williams, who is at 19 percent of the vote.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


A projection in California's 30th District

Good morning! We continue to track the handful of House races that still don't have winners, mostly in California. As a reminder, California votes almost entirely by mail, and while ballots had to be postmarked by March 5, they can arrive as late as March 12 and still count. Therefore, there are still thousands of ballots out there to be counted, so we could be waiting for several days.

In the meantime, though, we can cross one unresolved congressional race off the list: In California's 30th District, ABC News reports that Democrat Laura Friedman and Republican Alex Balekian are projected to advance to the general election in November. The 30th District is the seat that Schiff is leaving behind to run for Senate, and it's safely Democratic, so Friedman, a former film producer and state assemblywoman, should have no problem winning in the fall. The primary result is kind of a lucky break for her, actually, as there was a chance that she was going to face a fellow Democrat like Anthony Portantino or Mike Feuer in November, which would have been a dogfight.

P.S. People with long memories might remember that "Boy Meets World" star Ben Savage was also running for this seat, but he ended up finishing seventh with just 4 percent.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


The field is set in California's 47th and 49th

ABC News is also projecting the general-election candidates in two California House races:

- In the 47th District, Republican Scott Baugh and Democrat Dave Min have advanced out of the top two primary, leaving Democrat Joanna Weiss out in the cold. This is the seat that Democratic Rep. Katie Porter vacated to run for Senate, and it will be tough for Democrats to defend. Some Democrats are worried that Min's DUI arrest last year could drag him down.

- In the 49th District, Democratic Rep. Mike Levin and Republican Matt Gunderson have advanced to the general election. Biden carried this district by 11 points in 2020, so it'll probably stay in Democratic hands, but it's not out of the question that Gunderson could win in the fall.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Trump's magic number

Remember, dear reader, the presidential primary is all about the delegates. So far Trump has 276 to Haley's 43. That total is so lopsided that the only real question left is when, not if, Trump will win. The next big primary day is March 12 — let's take a look at what Trump needs to do today in order to clinch the delegate majority of 1,215 on the 12th.

Here's the math: There are 199 delegates up for grabs in contests between March 8 and March 12. Assuming he wins all of those 199 delegates, he would need to win 1,215 - 199 = 1,016 by the time all Super Tuesday ballots are counted. As noted, he's already won 276 of those delegates, meaning he has to pick up 769 delegates more, out of the 865 delegates up for grabs tonight. That's about 89% — which is a little higher than the 87% of delegates he has won from states that have voted so far.

Trump could totally pull that off, in which case we would start calling him the "presumptive nominee" next Tuesday. Otherwise, he will have to wait until March 19, when there are 370 more delegates up for grabs.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538