With 70 percent of the expected vote reporting in Vermont, Trump and Haley are tied again at 48 percent each. If Haley wins there, it might compel her to stay in past tonight, but the overall delegate math is still against her.

—Monica Potts, 538

Want to know more about territories like American Samoa, which participate in the nomination process but aren't states — and thus don't have Electoral College votes or representation in Congress? I recommend this fascinating book, "The Not-Quite-States of America" by journalist Doug Mack. It explores the contradictions in the status of these areas and how it affects the people who live there.

—Julia Azari, 538 contributor

Well, well, well. It turns out neither Trump nor Biden will sweep every presidential nominating contest this year. ABC News can confirm that Biden has lost the Democratic caucuses in the territory of American Samoa to Jason Palmer.

Who is Jason Palmer, you ask? One of the many no-name candidates who runs for president every year. According to DDHQ’s Derek Willis, Palmer actually visited American Samoa to campaign, which explains how he was able to accomplish something that neither Marianne Williamson nor Dean Phillips has been able to do this year.

P.S. What’s up with American Samoa and Democratic caucuses? You may recall that, back in 2020, it was the only state or territory to vote for Michael Bloomberg.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor

As Monica just noted, about the only drama in the presidential primary contests tonight can be found in Vermont, where Haley actually might defeat Trump in a traditional, state-run primary (unlike the party-run primary she won in Washington, D.C., over the weekend).

So, what's going on in Vermont? Fundamentally, the Republican primary electorate just isn't as conservative in Vermont. I've been using the 2016 Republican nomination race as a back-of-the-napkin guide to the makeup of the GOP electorate this year, and it's been useful. At this point, we could split the GOP into two parts: those who voted for Trump, Ted Cruz and Ben Carson, who tend to make up the Trumpier part of the GOP now; and those who backed Marco Rubio and John Kasich, who aren't as inclined to back Trump. Looking at how the Super Tuesday states voted in 2016, you'll notice that Vermont is the only state voting today in which the combined vote share for Rubio and Kasich outdistanced the Trump, Cruz and Carson cohort.

Back in 2016, the types of voters who backed Rubio and Kasich tended to be more moderate and more likely to hold a four-year college degree. In that sense, they attracted parts of the GOP coalition (and beyond) that make up much of Haley's coalition this year. As we already discussed, some Democratic-leaning voters may have helped Haley in every contest, and Vermont happens to also be a very blue state full of those voters.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538